Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! We have just a week left until the NBA trade deadline, and rumors are flying everywhere. This can be tough on some teams, as players aren’t sure of what jersey they’ll be wearing in a few days. Locker rooms can get nervous and players looking to get out of town have been known to ratchet up their usage to show teams they can play well. It’s add an extra element of qualitative variance to the NBA regular season. Be sure to keep your eyes on the news and be careful betting on teams that are actively shopping players.
It is Friday, so you can check out the video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. Please leave a comment there with any questions or suggestions you might have, and I’ll be sure to answer. Now, onto the basketball!
NBA Best Bets for Friday
Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers
Current Line – Kings -3, 248.5
My Projection – Kings 126, Pacers 119
Key Injuries – Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, Jalen Smith and Bennedict Mathurin are questionable.
The Pacers just can’t seem to stay healthy. Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam have only played three games together, and Haliburton had a minutes limit in both of those. Friday is no different on the second night of a back-to-back for Indiana. Haliburton is listed as questionable. I doubt he plays for the second night in a row, but if he does play, he will have the same 22-minute limit that has kept him from playing in the fourth quarter. Myles Turner and Jalen Smith, the two best options at center for the team, are also listed questionable. That type of “cluster” injury with multiple players at the same position can be particularly rough although their opponent tonight doesn’t have a traditional center. It’s just a brutal spot for the Pacers, whose roster is stretched thin.
The Kings are not known for being a great road team, but they have won three of the first four games of their seven game road trip. It is the first night of a back-to-back for them, but Sacramento has generally played hard in the first game and been willing to risk being fatigued for the second night. Even with Haliburton, the Kings are more talented, playing better basketball, and a great matchup for Indiana. Before the Pacers showed the league what running, gunning from deep, and not playing defense was cool, the Kings were that team and a better version of it. De’Aaron Fox is as fast as anyone in the league and a good shooter. He’s a perfect fit in the offense next to Domantas Sabonis, who is one of the most skilled passers and screens in the NBA. The two form the base of an offense that should be able to score any time they want tonight. I make it Sacramento -7 and we get a chance to bet them at -3. Let’s do that.
Bet
Sacramento Kings -3 (-110, Caesars)
Orlando Magic at Minnesota Timberwolves
Current Line – Timberwolves -8, 211.5
My Projection – Timberwolves 108, Magic 104
Key Injuries – None
The Timberwolves have won seven of their last 10 games but were only 5-5 against the spread in those matchups. It’s hard to disparage the team with the best record in the Western Conference, but I think their rating in the market has gotten a bit too high. The Timberwolves have had the best defense for the entire season and continue to be great at locking teams down, but are just 19th in offensive rating and they are one of the worst teams in the NBA turning over the ball to their opponent. That’s a dangerous recipe when facing other teams with good defenses. The games can become slow, ugly and the Timberwolves don’t have the halfcourt offense to do well in those conditions.
Friday, the Timberwolves play just that kind of team. Orlando has the fifth-best defense and are second best in the NBA at forcing turnovers. The Magic have a roster full of tall, long and athletic players who understand how to play defense together with a great effort every night. Similar to Minnesota, Orlando struggles offensively, but they have been much better in games with Franz Wagner who is has been healthy for the past week or more. Wagner plays the role of point forward and gets the team into it’s offense. He also unlocks the full potential of Paolo Banchero who seems to be getting better with every game. I think the Magic match up well here, and my projections agree that the spread is too big. I’ll bet on Orlando +8.
Bet
Orlando Magic +8 (-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Miami Heat at Washington Wizards +8.5, 227.5
Miami finally broke its losing streak by beating the Sacramento Kings at home by nine. The Heat travel to Washington Friday and are favored by a few more points than I think they should be. I make this game Miami -6 with a total of 225. Washington has been surprisingly competitive while losing game after game and I think they can stay inside this number, but I’m just not ready to bet on it yet. The Heat are a good first-half team and likely get to halftime with a comfortable lead. I might make a bet on the Wizards live, but that all depends on how the game is going. I’ll put any bet I make live in the FTNBets Discord. I don’t see any value in betting this game now thought.
Los Angeles Clippers at Detroit Pistons +11.5, 237.5
My projections are close to the market, and I don’t see any meaningful matchup advantages/disadvantages to attack of schedule/rest spots to fade. This is the Clippers’ fifth game of a seven-game road trip, but they at least a day off in between their last few games and even if they rest one or two of their stars, LA has the depth of talent to crush this Pistons team anyway. Detroit did beat the Oklahoma City Thunder last Sunday, but go back and look and you’ll see that the Thunder benched their starters for the fourth quarter, effectively punting the game. The Pistons did score 121 points and covered Wednesday in Cleveland against the Cavaliers, but they were reworking their lineup to make space for the return of key players. In short, I’m not inspired by the Pistons last few games and don’t think they can keep this game close. I make it Clippers -13 with a total of 236 and neither of those are big enough edges to bet. I’ll pass on this game.
Phoenix Suns at Atlanta Hawks +3.5, 248.5
This feels like a good spot to back the Suns, but I just can’t get there. I make this game Suns -4.5 with a total of 243. There’s not way in hell I’m playing under in this game and that’s not a big enough edge to back Phoenix. The Suns have been able to score as many points as they want against bad defenses now that all three of their stars are healthy. Atlanta has a bad defense and even on the road Phoenix should be able to put up a big number, but the Hawks have the same opportunity themselves. The Suns defense has not been good, especially at preventing offensive rebound. Atlanta should be able to get extra possessions and points as their centers attack the boards. It should be a fun game and although I think the Suns win it, I can’t bet on it.
Charlotte Hornets at Oklahoma City Thunder -16, 226
LaMelo Ball is doubtful and Jalen Williams is out for this game, which makes it hard to support either squad in this game. The Hornets are focused on making trades and losing games to get a better draft pick not on winning basketball games. The Thunder generally thrash teams this bad, but they’ve not played good basketball the last week or so. Jalen Williams has missed a few games and we’re starting to see why he might be the second best player in Oklahoma City. He’s one of the best defenders in the league and developing into a very good shooter who can space the floor on offense. I make this game Thunder -17 with a total of 228, so I’m pretty close to the current odds and don’t feel confident in either team, so I’ll let this one go.
Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies +8.5, 224.5
Memphis has been covering spreads and even winning games despite having to use G-League level players. Unfortunately, it’s the second night of a back-to-back, and Thursday night’s game was rough. Golden State is on the first night of a back-to-back themselves and might rest some of their stars late in this matchup to keep them fresh for the game Saturday in Atlanta against the Hawks. There’s a few good reasons not to back either of these sides and my model agrees with the betting markets. Nothing for me in this game.
Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets -4.5, 230
This is a tough game to handicap because we don’t know who is playing for the Raptors. RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and Immanuel Quickley are listed as questionable. If Barrett and Quickley can play, the Raptors might have enough talent to keep this game close. Without them, this looks a great spot to bet their team total under and the full game under as well. The Rockets big question is whether Alperen Sengun can play. He is the best and most important player in Houston. Without him, the offense struggles mightily and I’d love to bet under the full game total. So, let’s wait and see how the injury report shakes out and I’ll put any wagers I make in the FTNBets Discord.
New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs +8, 234.5
It’s the first night of a back-to-back for the Spurs, who are back to losing games after a two-game win streak a week ago. Victor Wembanyama and Tre Jones are expected to play, and San Antonio has been their best when both players are on the floor together. Unfortunately, I don’t think that’s enough talent to beat this Pelicans team. The Pelicans have beaten the Spurs twice already by an average margin of 26 points per game. There’s good reason to expect that to happen again tonight, but my projections actually show value on the Spurs. They’ve been better at home and the Pelicans might be looking ahead to the trip home since this is last game of a four-game road trip for them. Lean Pelicans, but I’m not going to bet on it.
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets -12, 220.5
Nikola Jokic is listed questionable, so do you want to lay 12 points with Denver without him? I sure don’t. My model makes this Nuggets -14 with Jokic and Nuggets -8 without him. This is first of a two game series between these squads with both games being played in Denver. Portland has been playing much better the last week or so, but still not well enough to beat a healthy Nuggets team. Of course, the Nuggets might not have their best player. I might back the Blazers if I can get them at +10 or better IF Jokic is not going to play. If Jokic is in, I have no interest in laying a big spread with a Denver team that is notorious for resting players and giving up big leads late. No bets for now. Check the FTNBets Discord once the Jokic news is official. I’ll put any wagers in the #nba-plays channel if I make any.
