Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Josh Okogie Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds
(-120, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Josh Okogie has entered the starting lineup following the Kevin Durant trade, and he has continued to do a solid job with the minutes given to him. My model projects him for over 32 minutes once again, which leads to a projection of 14 points and 6.42 rebounds. He has at least 4 rebounds in three straight games and 6 in his last two, while also scoring at least 17 points in each of his last three games.
Nikola Vucevic Over 11.5 Rebounds
(+107, BetRivers)
Nikola Vucevic let us down Wednesday, but I’m going back to him here as the Bulls are once again shorthanded without DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso. Vucevic has gone over this number in eight of his last 10 games, and the Bucks are 20th in rebounds allowed.
Anthony Edwards Over 4.5 assists
(+125, BetRivers)
My model projects Anthony Edwards for just over 5 assists, making this an interesting bet at +125. Edwards has at least 5 assists in seven of his last 10 games, and with D’Angelo Russell traded away he should continue to see impressive usage.
