Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s the last night before the All-Star break, and as we saw Wednesday, things can get crazy when some teams are looking ahead to the All-Star game or to some time off to rest.
There will be no NBA regular season games until Thursday of next week, but fear not — I’ll be back Friday with some bets for the All-Star competitions and maybe even the game. The game itself is hard to handicap, but I the three-point shootout is a great event to bet every season. I won’t be writing up any games, but early next week I’ll be doing a check-in on the futures market to see if there’s any value to be had before we finish the last 32-33 games of the season.
For now, let’s take a look at the three games we have tonight and see how we might be able to win a little more money before a well-needed break.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz
Current Line – Warriors -1.5, 239.5
My Projection – Jazz 122, Warriors 121
Key Injuries – None
The Warriors are rounding into form. Stephen Curry is as good as he has ever been. Draymond Green is back on the court leading the defense and connecting the dots on offense. Jonathan Kuminga gets better with each passing game. After tinkering with lineups a lot this season, Steve Kerr has finally found a rotation that works and has the best players on the floor at the end of games. I’m excited to see how they finish the season. Golden State can get up the 6 seed in the Western Conference to avoid the Play-In Tournament, but it seems likely that they will have to win one, if not two, Play-In games before being a scary opponent in the first round against any team. As for tonight, they are a veteran team on the second night of a back-to-back after a hard fought loss at home. They are in Utah, which is over 4,000 feet above sea level, to play a younger roster that likes to push the pace. The Warriors can win this game, but it’s not the best spot for them even if they aren’t distracted by the pending All-Star break.
The Jazz have struggled since the trade deadline. They moved Kelly Olynyk, Ochai Agbaji and Simone Fontecchio, who are not great players, but they were key parts of Utah’s second unit. The Jazz’ biggest advantage this season was their depth. They had two five-man units that played well together. Their second unit routinely beat the other team’s bench which allowed Utah to win games. They haven’t been able to figure out a new rotation, but they continue to score points in bunches. I expect them to win less games and not be able to cover spreads at the same rate we saw to start the season, but I do expect them to be a team that scores a lot every night. The Jazz push pace and shoot a lot of threes and against the Golden State Warriors, will continue to do just that. My model has them a slight favorite and a few points over their team total. I’m not going to bet the spread because it’s not a big edge, especially going across 0, and there’s a chance my model hasn’t caught up to the new Jazz. I am going to be the team total over though. As I said, they might not be as a good, but Utah will still score points, and I think that’s going to be even easier against a fatigued, veteran team.
Bet
Utah Jazz Team Total Over 119.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies +11.5, 223
The Grizzles played Wednesday at home and beat the Houston Rockets. The Bucks lost to the Miami Heat at home Tuesday. That creates a tough motivation spot to discern, especially on the eve of the All-Star break. Memphis should bet trying to lose games to improve their chances at the top draft pick, but they generally play their best at home for their fans. Milwaukee needs to win as many games as possible if they want to get to the 2 seed in the Eastern Conference and have homecourt advantage for the first two rounds of the playoffs, but the Bucks don’t need to play their best basketball to win this game. They could limit their star players’ minutes, give the bench guys some more run, and enter the break with everyone healthy. I make this game Milwaukee -10 with a total of 221. Those edges aren’t big enough to bet and there’s a lot of uncertainty about the motivation for each team. I’ll pass on this game.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers +9.5, 214.5
These two teams played in Portland Tuesday night, and the Timberwolves won by 12. Minnesota could be looking forward to the break and doesn’t need to play great to win this game. Anthony Edwards is listed as questionable and although he’s their best player, the Timberwolves can win easily without him, but will they win by 10-plus? Portland has been feisty at home, but they are missing Malcolm Brogdon who is their most important player. He’s their best shooter and point guard. Without Brogdon there is less space on the floor for the offense to operate and no good leader to run the operation. This is a mess of a game, and I can’t see value in betting anything. If Edwards is announced out and the total stays at 213 or higher, I might play an under even though those are scary bets in a possible blowout game. Check the FTNBets Discord to see if I make that bet later.
