Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Walker Kessler Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds
(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Walker Kessler has gone over this number in three straight, as well as five of his last six games. He projects for over 13.4 points in my model, as well as nearly 11 rebounds. This is also a good matchup for rebounding, as the Knicks rank 18th in rebounds allowed and 22nd in offensive rebounds allowed and are still without Mitch Robinson.
Bradley Beal Over 28.5 Points + Assists
(-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bradley Beal has been quite underwhelming as of late, averaging less than 20 PPG over his last 10 games, That said, with Kyle Kuzma out there is a chance we see a nice usage uptick for Beal, and this is a great matchup against the Pacers, who are 21st in points allowed and 28th in 3PT% allowed.
Jordan Poole Over 30.5 Points + Assists
(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jordan Poole sees a monster 34% usage rate with Stephen Curry off the floor, and now he gets an amazing matchup against the Lakers who rank 27th in points allowed and 23rd in assists allowed, and will be without LeBron James, and they just traded away their best perimeter defender in Patrick Beverley. My model has Poole for nearly 28 points as well as 6.2 assists.
