Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! I often complain about the lack of NBA basketball on national TV on Thursdays, but I will not be doing that here. Regular season games in December are back with a vengeance. We have eight matchups and all of them feature a team or teams in a bad schedule spot or missing a key player or two or three.
This makes it tough to handicap games, but at the same time, it’s tough for us and sportsbooks. It can often be easiest to find value in the betting markets when much is unknown although it is very difficult. Be careful placing wagers too early when injury reports are unclear, but don’t be afraid to attack an angle if you can get ahead of injury news or identify a weakness in derivative markets, like player props, if a team is playing a lineup we haven’t seen much. Let’s dive into Thursday’s games and see where those opportunities might lie.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls
Current Line – Bulls -6, 228.5
My Projection – Bulls 118, Spurs 110
Key Injuries – Zach LaVine is out. Devin Vassell is questionable.
The Bulls have won seven of their last 10 games, all without Zach LaVine. Their All-Star guard is on the trading block and may have played his last game in black and red. Both LaVine and the organization announced that both parties would be best moving forward apart from one another. That creates a weird energy on the court and in the locker room. If you have ever broken up with someone before the end of your shared lease, then you know how this situation feels. The player being shopped either hogs the ball when they play in an attempt to juice stats or checks out in an attempt to now get injured before being traded.
The rest of the roster tends to respond poorly, and you see the impact in losses on the court. LaVine hasn’t been traded, but he hasn’t been part of the Bulls, and the rest of the team has played better because of it. Coby White is playing the best basketball of his life now that he can slide into his natural position as a shooting guard off the ball. DeMar DeRozan has grabbed the leadership role and is trusting his teammates to score late instead of hogging the ball like we’ve seen in the past. They are beating good teams and are threatening to push their way into the playoff picture.
The Spurs are losing games and that seems to be the plan. Victor Wembanyama has been playing at center where he is most valuable to the team, but never late in games when San Antonio sees their leads vanish or their deficits grow. That said, the Spurs have been playing well to start to games, and that’s the angle we’re going to attack here. They are 16-10 against the spread in the first quarter and facing a Bulls team that is 10-18. Betting is not as simple as those numbers, but in derivative markets like quarters, it’s a good place to start when you’re looking for value. Digging in deeper, you’ll see the Spurs are in the top half of the NBA in net rating in the first 12 minutes of games while the Bulls are close to last. I make the first quarter a pick ‘em, so the Spurs +1.5 is definitely a bet.
Bet
San Antonio Spurs 1Q +1.5 (-105, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Current Line – Thunder -4.5, 236.5
My Projection – Thunder 123, Clippers 114
Key Injuries – Paul George is questionable.
The Clippers have been one of the best teams in the NBA the last few weeks, but the schedule comes for everyone. This is a back-to-back, their third game in four nights for the Clippers, and the last game of a road trip before playing Boston in LA Saturday. The Thunder have been at home since Sunday and haven’t played since Monday. That means we have a young, fresh team that had a few days to practice and plan for this game against an opponent that is tired, looking ahead to going home, and has not had the time to recover and prepare for this matchup.
This is one of the bigger rest advantages a team has had this season and only enhances the Thunders already good chances of winning. As good as the Clippers have been, the Thunder are arguably the best team LA has faced during this streak and a bad matchup for the veteran team. OKC has long, athletic defenders to throw at Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and Paul George (if he plays). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a top-five MVP candidate and won’t face a defender who can slow him down Thursday. The Thunder can go big with Chet Holmgren who should score over Ivica Zubac or go small to run Zubac off the court. If rest were equal, I’d have the Thunder as three-point favorites, and the market is offering us a chance to bet -4.5. With the rest advantage built in, I have OKC as nine-point favorites. I considered betting a Thunder team total over as well, but I’m happy to just bet the -4.5. I might add some alternate spread bets as well later so make sure you’re in the FTNBets Discord to get those bets if/when I make them.
Bet
Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Utah Jazz at Detroit Pistons -2.5, 235
So, do you want to lay points with a Pistons team that has lost 24 consecutive games, or do you want to take only 2.5 points with a Utah Jazz on the second night of a back-to-back and missing their starting backcourt? Your answer better be no to both, because no is the right answer. I do think Detroit wins and probably by a decent margin. Despite losing over and over again, they continue to play with effort, and this is the last real chance they have to win until Jan. 24. I hate this angle, but if there was a team to pull out all the stops to get a win, it would be the Pistons. There’s just no way I’m betting this mess of a basketball.
New Orleans Pelicans at Cleveland Cavaliers +4, 227
If you can tell me who’s playing in this game then I can tell you what do bet. Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas are questionable. Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley are out. Without those three, the Cavaliers are still a decent team at home, but not good enough to beat the Pelicans if either of their big men can play. If neither Zion nor Jonas can play, then this number looks about right to me. I just have no idea what players will be on the court, so I have to pass for now.
Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies -2.5, 247
What can we expect from Ja Morant in his second game, but his first game at home? The second and third games tend to be toughest for players returning from a long break. They are fresh and full of adrenaline for game one, but the body is not used to having to recover for the second and third games. This is a little different, because I’m sure the adrenaline will be pumping at home for Ja. The Pacers have yet to recover from their post-In-Season Tournament hangover and playing the Grizzlies in Memphis on the night of Ja’s first home game of the season is not the ideal scenario to bounce back to their winning ways. If Ja Morant has a good game, then -2.5 is too short of a spread, but I’m not equipped to handicap his performance tonight, so no bets. Grizzlies or pass if you need some action, but that’s always a bad idea to make a serious wager.
Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks -9, 238
The Magic is starting to disappear from Orlando’s great start to the season. They are 2-5 in their last seven games. Orlando is no longer catching opponents by surprise each night now that everyone knows how good they can be. There’s also now plenty of film for opponents to dissect. This will be Milwaukee’s ninth game in a row at home and as expected, their offense is in top form. Teams play better the longer they are at home because they have time to get comfortable with their surroundings and shooting lines of sight. I was a little shocked to see such a big spread, but the Bucks deserve to be almost double-digit favorites. These prices are close to my projections, so I’m not betting anything.
Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves -8.5, 223.5
Both of these teams played Wednesday night, and both lost those games. The Lakers, knowing they had the Timberwolves Thursday, played LeBron James and Anthony Davis Wednesday against a nonconference opponent. LA is 1-4 since winning the IST, and LeBron has spoken openly about how they need to get a win and refocus. Well, that was supposed to happen Wednesday and should have against a Bulls team much worse than the Lakers, but it did not. Things look even more grim here with LeBron and Davis is questionable. The Timberwolves should be big favorites and are big favorites. I don’t see any value in the market for this game.
Washington Wizards at Portland Trail Blazers -4, 240.5
Did you think Jazz/Pistons was as bad as it gets? Well, you were wrong! This game is awful and that’s even before you have to consider betting the Wizards getting only 4 points or laying any number of points with the Trail Blazers. Portland finally has all their players and is playing better. They deserve to be favored, but that doesn’t mean we have to bet on them. The Wizards are actively trying to lose games, which makes them unbettable. There’s nothing here I like, so no bets on this game.
