Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Donovan Mitchell o28.5 points
(-133, FanDuel)
Donovan Mitchell has been playing great and now gets a matchup against the Jazz, who have struggled defensively as of late. If you’re into narratives, this is also a matchup against his former team that traded him away this offseason.
James Harden o20.5 points
(-122, FanDuel)
James Harden has gone over this number in four of his last five games, and my model projects him to do so once again. It’s not a great matchup against the Raptors, but he should continue to benefit from playing massive minutes with an increased usage rate.
Zion Williamson o25.5 points
(-118, FanDuel)
Zion Williamson has scored 30+ in four of his last five games, and 26+ in eight of his last nine games. He gets a tough matchup against Milwaukee, but with no Brandon Ingram he should continue to carry this New Orleans team on his back.
