NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/19)

NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games. 

I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.

Let’s get to it. 

Donovan Mitchell o28.5 points 

(-133, FanDuel)

Donovan Mitchell has been playing great and now gets a matchup against the Jazz, who have struggled defensively as of late. If you’re into narratives, this is also a matchup against his former team that traded him away this offseason. 

James Harden o20.5 points 

(-122, FanDuel)

James Harden has gone over this number in four of his last five games, and my model projects him to do so once again. It’s not a great matchup against the Raptors, but he should continue to benefit from playing massive minutes with an increased usage rate. 

Zion Williamson o25.5 points 

(-118, FanDuel)

Zion Williamson has scored 30+ in four of his last five games, and 26+ in eight of his last nine games. He gets a tough matchup against Milwaukee, but with no Brandon Ingram he should continue to carry this New Orleans team on his back.