NBA Best Bets of the Day (11/3)

The Golden State Warriors (4-1) put their perfect 3-0 road record on the line when they travel to Oklahoma City to battle the Thunder (3-2) Friday. Despite the presence of explosive scorers such as Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, these two teams have hit the under at a 70% (7-3) rate in their games this season. Will that trend continue here? 

Here is a look at Frank Brank’s NBA pick for Golden State at Oklahoma City at 8 p.m. ET. 

Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder

Under 228.5 (-115, BetMGM)

This is a really strange Golden State-Oklahoma City game, especially the total. I really like this under for several reasons.

The Warriors rank 26th in pace this year, which is counter intuitive to the average fan. Golden State tied with San Antonio for the fastest pace in the NBA last season. The Thunder currently rank second fastest on offense, which you would think would be bolstered by a Friday night home matchup. However, The Warriors rank fifth fastest in pace against, while Oklahoma City ranks 29th in pace against this season. 

These are all competing factors, of course. However, there is a huge variable, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being ruled out with a left knee sprain suffered in the Thunder’s loss to New Orleans Wednesday. Gilgeous-Alexander being out eliminates a key pace giver to Oklahoma City’s offense and eliminates a key offensive weapon for the Thunder. While he’s a rare defensive positive among NBA point guards, Gilgeous-Alexander is worth about 3.5 points to the Over compared to the average player per 100 possessions.

Oklahoma City ran an offense of 13.4 seconds per possession last year with Gilgeous-Alexander on the court, which would only trail Sacramento with De’Aaron Fox by just 0.1 seconds per possession. While off the court, the Thunder ran at 14.3 seconds per possession on offense, a significant 6.7% difference. That’s almost one second slower every single possession without Gilgeous-Alexander. He only trailed Atlanta’s Trae Young in pace differential from the team last year when he was on and off the court.

I’m backing the under in this matchup without Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor, an absence that has a bigger impact on the total than most people realize.  I would bet this down to a total of 226.