NBA Best Bets of the Day (11/16)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s a two-game Thursday NBA slate, as most teams get a break after a jampacked last few days. Notice I didn’t say “TNT Thursday,” which is annoying but makes a little more sense this week since the NBA is competing with the Thursday Night Football game. I really wish the NBA and TNT would at least try to take on the NFL on Thursday nights, but at least both games are on NBA TV and both will be interesting.

We have an Atlantic Division matchup between two teams missing their best scoring guards and still trying to find their identity early in the season. The other game is a matchup between a long time Western Conference contender and an up-and-coming team that will be a contender in the Western Conference for years to come. Let’s dive into the games and see where the value lies.

NBA Best Bets for Thursday

Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat

Current Line – Heat -3.5, 214.5
My Projection – Heat 107, Nets 106
Key Injuries – Tyler Herro and Cam Thomas are out.

The Heat are back! Or are they? Miami has won their last six games, which at a high level is impressive, but not so much when you look at who they beat. Victories over the Wizards, Grizzlies, Spurs and Hornets are nothing special, and they only beat the Lakers by one point — I do give them some credit for the win over the Hawks. Basically, I haven’t adjusted my ratings on the Heat upward very much despite their recent success. They’re without Tyler Herro and they have been able to score efficiently without him the past few games, tonight is a different challenge. The Brooklyn Nets with Nic Claxton back are one of the better defensive rosters in the NBA. The Heat were seven-point favorites in Miami two weeks ago with Tyler Herro and no Claxton for the Nets. Thursday is also a bad schedule spot for the Heat, who just returned home from four-game road trip and head out Friday to start a five-game road trip. I don’t think we’ve seen a big enough adjustment from that line and my projections have this a one-point game. This should be a defensive-minded game where both teams struggle to manufacture and grind out points. Miami has better stars and Brooklyn has better depth. I see a close matchup and am happy to take the points with the underdog tonight.

Bet

Brooklyn Nets +3.5 (+110, BetMGM)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors

Current Line – Thunder -3, 226.5
My Projection – Thunder 117, Warriors 111
Key Injuries – Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are out.

This game offers another case where I don’t think the market is adjusting properly based on the closing line from their first matchup. The Warriors closed as six-point favorites at home against the Thunder Nov. 3 with everyone healthy for both teams. Thursday’s spread is a nine-point adjustment, which may seem big even with two starters out, but think about who those two players are. Stephen Curry has the key to the Warriors offense for seasons and without him, there is not much scoring talent left. Klay Thompson is far from what he once was. Chris Paul will likely take over, which will be his first time leading this team and a lot to ask of a 38-year-old, 6-foot-0 guard. I don’t see where the points come from for Golden State without Curry. Draymond Green’s impact of defense is clear, but I think the rest of the team can cover for him more than they can for Curry. Now enter the Thunder a team full of long, athletes that will be able to keep Chris Paul from finding any space to create and a lead guard in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who will attack the Golden State defense relentlessly. It’s a nightmare matchup for the Warriors and a nightmare spot given all the pressure they have to win after four consecutive losses, three at home. I love OKC tonight and have them favorites by six, so I’ll happily lay the three.