NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Below, I’m using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Top Points Prop
Scottie Barnes Over 14.5 Points
(-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This could be an extremely slow game, as Toronto ranks 29th in pace while the 76ers rank 30th, but this is still a line that my model views as too low. Scottie Barnes has scored no fewer than 15 points in games he was able to start and finish this year. He is averaging 14.8 PPG, and that is with a game against Miami in which he was forced to leave early after scoring 11 points in just 13 minutes. This 76ers team has been weak defensively, ranking 23rd in defensive efficiency, and Joel Embiid also happens to be questionable coming into this one.
Top Assists Prop
Tre Jones Over 5.5 Assists
(+110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I took a ladder on Tre Jones assists last game, and I am tempted to do so again Friday despite that failing horribly. So far this season, Tre Jones is averaging over 11 potential assists per game and last game with Devin Vassell and Josh Primo out, he had 11 once again. However, only three of those were converted. Additionally, despite having just a 12% usage rate, Josh Richardson registered 16 potential assists and converted 10 of those. The upside is definitely there for Jones, who has averaged 0.2 assists per minute over the last year, and that is without factoring in removing Dejounte Murray, Devin Vassell and Josh Primo from those splits. His minutes are solidified as he has played 29-plus minutes in all but one game this year. Even placing him at 29 minutes (my model has him for 33 minutes) and assuming that his 0.2 assists-per-minute rate doesn’t improve with his new role, and still leaves him at a 5.8 assists projection. However, with him projected for 33 minutes and an increased role in the offense, my model projects him 7.5 assists.
Top Rebounds Prop
Rudy Gobert Over 13.5 Rebounds
(-130, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Rudy Gobert has had two down games in terms of rebounds in back-to-back showings, but a date against the team with the worst field goal percentage in the entire NBA sounds like a great remedy for that. Gobert had at least 15 rebounds in each of his first three games, and my model projects him for north of 17 here.
Top Longshot Prop
LeBron James to Record a Triple-Double
(+700, DraftKings Sportsbook)
We all know LeBron James can fill up the stat sheet, and this sets up for a great game environment with both teams playing at a top-six pace so far this season.
