Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
After having only two games Thursday night, the NBA action picks up Friday with 22 teams in action. That means we have a lot of potential markets to look through for best bets. You can see all of the best bets over in our bet tracker on FTN Bets.
Here is a taste of my top play in each of the major betting markets that I look at for Friday.
Best NBA Total Bets
Phoenix Suns @ Portland Trail Blazers
I bet this number at 223.5 and it is already creeping up to 224 or 224.5 on most other books. It was the biggest edge our FTNBets NBA model had for a total Friday. I think it’s worth a full unit wager up to 225 and at least a half unit wager if it remains under 226. We project multiple players to go over their scoring totals in this game, including Devin Booker, Jerami Grant and Damian Lillard. With the game being in Portland, I expect the Blazers to fight it out until the end. Those close games with explosive offenses are the ones that can sail past projected totals easily and that is what I envision here.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Jerami Grant OVER 17.5 Points
Jerami Grant shot well in the opener and finished with 23 points. More importantly, he played 35 minutes. That gives me confidence he will have ample opportunity to get buckets. He hit all three of his attempts from deep and made double-digit free throws. The score today projects to be higher than it was in the opener, which means we could even see more attempts and points out of him. Our projection is for 26, which makes this one of the biggest edges we have today in our player prop tool.
Best NBA Rebounds Prop Bet
Kristaps Porzingis OVER 8.5 Rebounds
We cashed the over 7.5 on Kristaps Porzingis in the opener and hit the double-double at +295. The DD is down to +205 Friday, and his projection dropped from over 12 rebounds to just shy of 11. That is still over the 8.5 we need. The lower projection and higher prop mean it is not as good a bet as it was in the last game. The payout is plus money though, which still makes it worthy of a smaller wager.
Best NBA Assist Prop Bet
Ja Morant OVER 7.5 Assists
I want to go back to the well with Ja Morant as well. We cashed on the Ja over last game, and it is a full assist higher this time. We like this game to go over the total and Houston’s defense seemed to be as dreadful as it was last season in the opener. Memphis is very talented and should score at will. Ja led the team in points and assists in the opener and projects for a double-double Friday. Even at the higher prop number, the projection is also higher. That means the edge is basically the same as it was last game when we cashed on him.
