Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s a big NBA slate on this Friday night, but a very messy one. We have more interconference matchups, fatigue concerns, potential lookahead spots and questions about player availability. It’s tough, but this is life as an NBA handicapper in January before the trade deadline.
There are a lot of landmines to avoid, and it’s usually a good idea to use discretion and pass on a bet unless you really like it. The good news is that sportsbooks have the same problems and their attentions distracted by the NFL, NHL, college sports and myriad other things to book.
Let’s wade into Friday’s games, see how things might play out, and try to find value among the chaos that is regular season NBA basketball. Of course, since it is Friday, you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN YouTube channel. Leave a comment there if you have any questions or suggestions. Now, to the hoops.
NBA Best Bets for Friday
Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks
Current Line – Bucks -6, 238
My Projection – Bucks 121, Cavaliers 118
Key Injuries – Darius Garland and Evan Mobley are out.
The Milwaukee Bucks have a new coach, and they sure seemed excited about it when these two teams played Wednesday night. The Bucks closed -6.5 at home with a total of 238 and won the game by 10. The Bucks won the game by shooting almost twice as many free throws than the Cavaliers, and by winning the possession battle (offensive rebounds and turnovers) for the first time in the three games these teams have played. It was a good performance by the Bucks and seemed like a clear response to seeing a new coach at the helm and not a coach they didn’t like. It’s rare a coach gets fired during the middle of a season, but you often see this bump in performance for a game, maybe two. Joe Prunty is at the helm again, and Doc Rivers will take over soon. Rivers has been consulting with the team, so there will be some familiarity, but it’s important to pay attention to how the Bucks respond to these changes.
Milwaukee faces Cleveland again here, and the betting odds are roughly the same as they were on Wednesday night. Going back through that game, I think it was much closer than the 10-point difference where it finished. It’s rare for the Cavaliers to turn the ball over more than their opponent and have fewer offensive rebounds. Perhaps that was a result of a change in the Milwaukee scheme, but it could also have been due to the additional energy we saw from the Bucks. We could see the same free throw disparity again. Cleveland is at the bottom of the league in average free throw attempts and Milwaukee is near the top, but the disparity in their averages is much smaller than the difference of 13 attempts we saw Wednesday night. In short, I struggle to see how the Bucks repeat that performance and my projections make this only a three-point spread. I’ll happily ride with the Cavaliers.
Bet
Cleveland Cavaliers +6 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks +2.5, 245
There are too many injury questions to bet this game right now. For the Hawks, both Trae Young and Clint Capela are listed as questionable. Atlanta is a much different team when Young plays. He’s missed a few games and being “upgraded” to questionable is usually a sign that he will play, but I’m not willing to make a bet based on that. Capela is more replaceable but is a big part of what Atlanta wants to do each night. This is an odd schedule spot for Dallas, who is in Atlanta Friday and heads right back home to play Saturday. Kyrie Irving is listed as questionable, and I’d imagine it’s more than likely that he rests against a nonconference opponent on the road. If everyone questionable is out, I lean to the under and Dallas, but I’m happy to wait until I know who is playing to make any wagers. This is a messy spot and a difficult game to bet.
Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers +4.5, 243.5
Are the Pacers back? After struggling to play fast and score points in bunch with Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana blitzed the Philadelphia 76ers early and often. Philadelphia did win the fourth quarter by nine points but still lost the game by 12 points. After averaging a pace of just under 100 possessions per 48 minutes for the last 10 games, the pace Thursday was just under 110 possessions per 48 minutes. Is this a return to what we saw early in the year or a one game aberration? If they can play fast on the second night of a back-to-back then this total is too low, but I just don’t know what to expect. Phoenix’s offense is one of the best in the league over the last 10 games. Their offensive rating is just over 121 points per 100 possessions, but their pace is just over 99 possessions per 48 minutes during that stretch. I’m struggling to see how this matchup plays out and my model is within a point or two of the current market prices, so I’m going to pass on betting and just enjoy the watch.
Houston Rockets at Charlotte Hornets +5.5, 223.5
Let’s break down our options here: We could bet on the Rockets on the road knowing that they have to play again Saturday night in Brooklyn and that they just let the Portland Trail Blazers score over 130 points in their home arena. We could also bet on the Hornets, who just traded away arguably their best player this season and are actively and openly trying to trade most of the remaining players. Oh, they’re only getting 5.5 points in this game. I’m not sure I’ve had two worse options ever presented to me, but these are certainly in the conversation for worst all time. Thankfully we don’t actually have to bet anything in this game, so let’s do exactly that and just try to forget about this game altogether.
Los Angeles Clippers at Toronto Raptors +8, 236
This is a bad spot for the Clippers. This is the first game of a seven-game road trip against Eastern Conference opponents. They play the Celtics Saturday night in Boston, which could very well be a lookahead distraction for Los Angeles. Their injury report is pretty clean, but maybe they rest players in the fourth quarter if they have a big lead late. It’s a great recipe for a team with a good homecourt advantage like Toronto to sneak inside the spread late in the game. The Raptors struggled at first to adjust to loss of Pascal Siakam, but have stabilized a bit the last few games and is the kind of team to push hard late even if they are down a lot. Unfortunately, I don’t know if Immanuel Quickley is not available to play. That’s a huge blow to the Raptors level of talent and forces them to again change their lineups. I would love to bet on Toronto, but I can’t trust them without Quickley. I make this Clippers -10, but as I said at the start, it’s an awful schedule for them. I’m going to pass on this game.
Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans +1.5, 239
I’ve been thinking about betting the Thunder all day, but I just can’t see the value in doing that. Zion Williamson was added to the injury report recently as questionable, which is usually a bad sign for a someone’s chances of being on the court. If he is not playing for the Pelicans, I make this game Thunder -3, which is an edge, but not a big enough one for be to make a bet at -1.5. It should be a great game and a very close matchup. I think OKC has the better roster and should win this game, but New Orleans has a few mismatches in their favor to exploit. Enjoy the watch, but I can’t advise that you bet anything.
Orlando Magic at Memphis Grizzlies +6, 212.5
My projections make this Orlando -7 with a total of 211, both in line with the current odds. The Magic are a much better team than the Grizzlies and matchup well against Memphis, but this an odd one game road trip to face a nonconference opponent. I think Orlando can win this game by double digits, but I’m wary of how they’ll play and wary of fading a Memphis Grizzlies team that continues to play just well enough to cover spreads. They won their last game as 10-point underdogs in Miami against the Heat. Could they catch another Southeast Division team by surprise and win outright? Sure, why not? If you are going to play the Magic I would suggest you play alternate spreads because I think they cover easily if they do cover, but I am not betting this game. It’s close to my numbers and the side I like has too many questions.
Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs -3.5, 229.5
The Trail Blazers won a tough overtime game Wednesday night and finish their four-game road trip here in San Antonio. Portland has been playing much better the last few weeks. Everyone is finally healthy and the lineups have settled. It’s a roster full of young players trying to learn the NBA and veterans hoping to play enough for a winning team want to trade for them. That can be a dangerous combination especially against a team like the Spurs who haven’t tried to win games for the most part this season. Tre Jones had finally worked his way into San Antonio’s starting lineup and the presence of a good point guard has made a world of difference to their offense. He’s questionable here, which makes it hard to trust the Spurs. I make this spread Spurs -2.5 without Jones and -4.5 with Jones. If he’s going to play I might find an angle to back San Antonio, but nothing for now. I’ll any bets I make later in the FTN Discord #nba-plays channel.
