Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s a TNT Thursday night that features two great conference matchups and a few interesting nonconference games to enjoy. The Boston Celtics play the Miami Heat, and that is appointment viewing. I should stay awake late and watch the Sacramento Kings play the Golden State Warriors, but I live in Philadelphia and am old, so best case I fall asleep on the couch watching that game.
The other games are full of questions about motivation, schedule fatigue, and the value of one player to their respective teams. These are all tough questions to answer, but if we can find ways to value each then we can get an edge over the market. Let’s dive into each game, see what there is to expect and find some value to attack.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers
Current Line – 76ers -5, 239
My Projection – 76ers 122, Pacers 114
Key Injuries – Tyrese Haliburton is out. Tobias Harris is questionable.
The Pacers are a much different team without Tyrese Haliburton. With Haliburton, they are 20-15 against the spread, average 126.8 points per game and play at an average pace of 103.5 possessions per 48 minutes. Without Haliburton, they are 4-3 with 3 pushes against the spread, average 115.4 points per game and play at an average pace of 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes. He is the key to unlocking the full potential of this Indiana roster, and without him the offense is close to average and the defense is not great. Indiana has played two games with Pascal Siakam and no Haliburton. They lost to the Suns in Phoenix by seven and to the Nuggets at home by five. It’s never good to lose, but those aren’t bad losses. Overall, it’s not a bad team without their star, but it’s certainly not a good team.
The Pacers face the 76ers, who are a very good team. Historically, this would be a spot where Joel Embiid’s status would be in question because the team might want to rest him on the road. Thanks to the games played requirement to win the Most Valuable Player award and All-NBA teams, Embiid is going play to as many games as possible now to hopefully save chances to rest late in the season. Not that any team has a great option to defend Joel Embiid, but the Indiana Pacers are very poorly equipped to do so. Myles Turner has never done well against the 76ers center. Siakam had some success guarding Embiid a few seasons ago, but that was part of a great Toronto Raptors defense full of athletic players that attacked in a trapping scheme. That’s not the case here. This looks like a great matchup for the MVP candidate and the rest of the 76ers. I make them 8-point favorites and like the under as well, so give me Philadelphia -5 and a Pacers Team Total Under at 117.5 -115 or better.
Bets
Philadelphia 76ers -5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Indiana Pacers Team Total Under 117.5 (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers
Current Line – Lakers -5, 228.5
My Projection – Lakers 116, Bulls 114
Key Injuries – Zach LaVine is out. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are questionable.
Regular readers may be shocked to see the Lakers so far up the page, but damn the torpedoes, I’m betting a Lakers game before I know whether or LeBron James and/or Anthony Davis are playing. The Chicago Bulls look undervalued to me, and I think the market is doing a bad job of understanding the impact of Zach LaVine. Chicago is 15-6-1 against the spread without Zach LaVine and 7-15-1 against the spread with him. It can be difficult to evaluate one single player, but that means you can often find an edge to attack if you identify when the market gets a player wrong. LaVine is a good player and can help another team, but without him Chicago’s team makes more sense. His absence pushes Alex Caruso into the starting lineup which is a big upgrade for the defense while providing great shooting and spacing on offense. LaVine is a high-usage player, which means he has the ball and others do not. When he is off the floor, the ball moves more and players like Coby White, DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic.
The Lakers have been winning games, but sandwich those wins with odd losses. They beat the Thunder by seven points, then the Mavericks by 17 and followed those up with an 18-point loss to the Nets at home. I still think Los Angeles can find a way to get into the playoffs and play winning basketball in the postseason, but for now I don’t rate them very highly. The Suns closed as 5-point favorites in Phoenix against Chicago Monday. They Lakers are 5-point favorites at home with both of their stars listed as questionable. That makes no sense to me. The Suns are better than the Lakers by at least a few points. Even if LeBron and Davis play, I make this a 2-point spread and there’s definitely a chance one of them rest. This looks a great spot to back the Bulls and I’ll happily bet the spread at +5.
Bet
Chicago Bulls +5 (-112, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Utah Jazz at Washington Wizards +7, 243.5
These prices are pretty close to my numbers. The Wizards are playing their second game in two nights, but with both games in Washington. The Jazz have been playing great basketball for the better part of a month now and should be able to crush this team. Unfortunately, Utah is in the middle of a road trip, and their performance away from their home arena has not been good. The altitude of Salt Lake City gives the Jazz an advantage especially when they push pace and love to shoot as many three pointers as possible. Washington also likes to shoot a lot of threes which means this game could have a wide range of outcomes given the possible shooting variance. If you’re playing the Jazz, play alternate spreads, and if you’re playing the Wizards, don’t be afraid to sprinkle the moneyline for a small amount. All that said, I don’t want to bet this game, and I don’t have to do anything I don’t want to do.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Brooklyn Nets +4, 217
This is a strange game and one I’m struggling to handicap confidently. It’s a bad schedule spot for the Timberwolves, who are playing their second game of a road back-to-back and their third game in the last four nights. At the same time, Minnesota matches up very well against Brookly. The Timberwolves are top 10 in the NBA in preventing 3-point shot attempts and are top 10 in 3-point percentage allowed. The Nets thrive when 3-pointers are flying and falling into the basket, but they should struggle to do that if the Timberwolves are playing well. My other concern about Brooklyn is the drop in their pace over the last few weeks. For some reason, they’ve slowed down which isn’t good for generating 3-point attempts. So, given Minnesota’s schedule spot it’s Brooklyn or pass for me, and I’m definitely not betting on the Nets, so no bets.
Denver Nuggets at New York Knicks +2, 222.5
This is a tough game to handicap. The Nuggets are playing their last game of a five-game road trip and face the Philadelphia 76ers in Denver on Saturday on national television. That said, it’s a game in Madison Square Garden, which is still a motivating factor for a lot of players and if Isaiah Hartenstein can’t play then there is no one on the Knicks who can keep Nikola Jokic from doing whatever he wants. So, will Denver care and if they do, is there anything that can stop Jokic? If Denver cares and Hartenstein is out, I’d love the back the Nuggets at just -2. Unfortunately, I have no way of knowing the former and the latter will be unclear until much later in the day. Keep an eye on the FTNBets Discord, which is where I’ll post any plays I make later, but I have no bets right now.
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat +7, 224.5
The Miami Heat have lost their last four games including losing Wednesday as 10-point favorites at home against the Grizzlies. Is this clunkiness from trade rumors and changes from their recent acquisition of Terry Rozier? Are the Heat, who have lost four games in a row in poor fashion, a bad team all of a sudden? Could genius game theorists and noted Celtics torturers Erik Spoelstra and Jimmy Butler just setting up the Celtics for another crushing defeat? If I haven’t made myself clear, I feel insane thinking about this game. Boston has a better roster and is playing much better basketball, but time and time again the Heat find ways to flip the switch, play great basketball, and win games like this. I’m excited to watch and would suggest a sprinkle on the Miami moneyline if you absolutely must bet this game, but you’re an adult and don’t have to anything you don’t want to do. I will not be betting this game.
Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors +2, 241
Golden State played Wednesday night, which was their first game since the death of their assistant coach, Dejan Milojevic. The team had over a week off to attend to the passing of their coach, which also means they had over a week to recover from any injuries or fatigue. The Warriors played one of their best games of the season, albeit against a Hawks team that seems to get everyone’s best, but it was great to see a positive outcome. Golden State a game behind the 10 seed in the West, the last Play-In Tournament spot, and 5.5 games behind the 6 seed. They need to win something like 14 of 20 games to get back into playoff contention. I make the Warriors 1-point favorites in this game, three points better than the current spread. Three is usually a big enough edge for me to bet, but not all three points are the same. A three-point edge from +3 up to +6 or -6 down to -3 is much different than -1 up to +2 because we’re going across 0. So, that gives me a smaller edge than I would normally play on a team playing their second game in two nights after an emotional first game back from a week+ break. I don’t like the sounds of that, so I’ll pass and hope the Warriors start a hot streak. The NBA is more fun when Stephen Curry is in the postseason.
