Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! I hope you had an excellent holiday season and are ready for the race to the Feb. 8 NBA trade deadline. Rumors spread like wildfire and teams suddenly change directions or lockers suddenly fall apart.
We saw our first deal as the New York Knicks swapped RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and a second-round pick for OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn. This has to be a disappointment for Toronto, who was asking for several first-round picks in exchange for Anunoby last year. He’s a free agent this summer, which hurts his value, but to move him without getting even one first-rounder must be a letdown for them. It’s an interesting move for the Knicks, who generally chase stars and not a very good but not great player like Anunoby. OG is immediately the best defensive player, and New York shouldn’t have too much trouble retaining him this offseason. The Knicks aren’t a contender to win the Eastern Conference yet, but it’s a good move that makes them a better team. I think it also signals that Raptors will keep selling players, so keep your ear to the ground for Pascal Siakam and Gary Trent rumors.
In the meantime, let’s focus on Tuesday’s games and see what bets that are to make.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers
Current Line – 76ers -10.5, 223.5
My Projection – 76ers 120, Bulls 106
Key Injuries –Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic and De’Anthony Melton are out.
Joel Embiid is back for the 76ers, and I expect Philadelphia to get back to winning games by big margins. It generally takes players a game or two to play their best basketball after long breaks, but if anyone knows how to deal with an injury layoff it’s Embiid. He’s generally done a good job in the past of working himself back into shape and playing his first game back at a high level. The Bulls are 2-0 against the 76ers including a win just days ago, but this situation is much different. Not only was Embiid not playing in Chicago’s win Saturday, Philadelphia was also playing their third game in four nights and their second road game in two nights, which is as bad as a schedule spot can be. The first matchup was more interesting. The Bulls won 108-104 in Philadelphia. A big part of that win was Chicago’s 3-point shooting and specifically the performance of Nikola Vucevic. Although a bad defender, Vucevic was able to offset that problem by drawing Embiid away from the basket on defense. Vucevic is one of the better shooting centers and demands respect which means Embiid can’t sag off of him to defend the rim. Unfortunately for the Bulls, he is out and Andre Drummond is in. Drummond has struggled against Embiid in the past and there’s no reason for me to expect tonight to be any different. It’s a great matchup for a healthy Philadelphia 76ers team against a Chicago Bulls squad that is on the first night of two road games in two nights. Everything points to a big win for Philadelphia, so I’m betting on just that.
Bet
Philadelphia 76ers -10.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Boston Celtics at Oklahoma City Thunder
Current Line – Celtics -4, 239.5
My Projection – Celtics 119, Thunder 118
Key Injuries – None
When fully healthy, the Boston Celtics are the highest-rated team by the betting markets, and for good reason. It’s a deep roster full of talented players with a wide range of skills that play well together. They are four-point favorites in Oklahoma City, which is one of the better home court advantages in the NBA. Home court is worth less than it ever has been, but the Thunder get an advantage worth about two points by estimation. That means the betting markets think the Celtics are 6 points better than the Thunder on a neutral court, which is about 2.5 points more than I have them, and I also think the market is underestimating OKC’s home court edge. The Thunder are 13-5 against the spread at home this season and have beaten several great teams. Each of OKC’s key stats improve at home, and when watching you can see and hear the crowd’s impact. This is the first night of a back-to-back for them, but Wednesday’s game in Atlanta is not a look-ahead spot for a young team focused on proving they can beat the league’s best teams. Looking at the matchup, this game should be played on the razor’s edge. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey are more offensively talented, but Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are the kind of elite defenders that can slow down the Thunder’s backcourt. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown rarely face a team with two wing defenders talented and strong enough to stop them, but Luguentz Dort and Jalen Williams are just those kinds of players. We get to see two huge, talented centers who can defend the rim and shoot well in Chet Holmgren and Kristaps Porzingis. I make it a one-point game and we get a chance to take the home team getting four points. I’ll happily bet that.
Bet
Oklahoma City Thunder +4 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies -11, 236
I don’t have a good grasp on either one of these teams. The Spurs continue to find new, perplexing ways to try to lose games. Victor Wembanyama has averaged close to 30 minutes per game this season but has played 24 minutes or less in his last four games. San Antonio finally gave up on playing Jeremy Sochan at point guard but refuse to start their best option in Tre Jones. They probably deserve to be huge underdogs, but I don’t know how good this Memphis Grizzlies team is. They won their first four games with Ja Morant and lost the next three by 37, 11 and 31. I really don’t know what to do with this game, so I’m not betting on it.
Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans -5.5, 228.5
This game came out close to my projections and is a messy spot for both teams. It’s the first night of two back-to-back road games for the Nets, who are already on a three-game losing streak. The Pelicans are a scary matchup for them given Brooklyn’s lack of size. The Pelicans also play on the road Wednesday night and face the Minnesota Timberwolves, which is definitely a spot they’ll look ahead to playing. New Orleans has struggled in the second half and although I think they can get out to a big lead, I’m not confident they can hold it. Not bets for me.
Charlotte Hornets at Sacramento Kings -16, 231
I’m not sure if the Kings should be 16-point favorites, and I am sure the Hornets deserve more points than 16 which puts me in a tough spot. Sacramento has been playing great basketball and could easily win this game by 20, but numbers that big often lose late in the fourth quarter when the team winning puts in their backups. Now, if there ever a team that could still lose to Sacramento’s second unit, it’s these Charlotte Hornets. They are terrible. I’m happy to pass on this game.
Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors -3, 230.5
These are two more teams that I don’t think I can handicap well right now. Orlando had a great start to the season, but the Magic have been mediocre at best the last month. Their defense has taken a big step back, and that’s a real concern against a Warriors team that can score points in bunches at their best. Unfortunately, Golden State has also played inconsistently the last few weeks. I like to see Steve Kerr changing the starting lineup, but he’s still tinkering. They won five games in a row and looked great but lost their last three games and looked far from good. My projections lean Orlando and under, but I’m not sure those are good numbers. I can’t honestly say what is and what is not value in this game.
