Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! TNT Tuesday is here! For big chunks of the season, the TNT crew only works Thursday night games, but we sometimes get lucky enough to see them on a Tuesday night. That might mean that we see fewer games, but we tend to see better matchups of the league’s better teams.
These games are previews of potential playoff matchups and a great chance for us to learn something we can use in the postseason. Unfortunately, it’s January, and that mean’s we have injury report nonsense to sort out, but I’m trying to be optimistic and do think we’ll see most of the players listed questionable on the court this evening. If we do, then there is a game between two MVP winners and top candidates for this year’s MVP trophy, a dark horse candidate for the Western Conference Finals matchup, and another potential playoff series between two teams that will scores in bunches.
Let’s dive into each game, see what we might expect, and hopefully find a bet to make.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers
Current Line – Clippers -6.5, 235.5
My Projection – Clippers 122, Thunder 111
Key Injuries – Ivica Zubac is out. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable.
If you’re a regular reader of Hoops with Noops, the phrase “schedule spot” has likely become part of your lexicon. It is an all too important part of NBA handicapping. The schedule teams play is brutal and forces every franchise to have to play too many games in short periods of time. Even with resting and careful planning, payers succumb to fatigue and struggle to play their best basketball. The Oklahoma City Thunder played back-to-back games with travel before each game Wednesday and Thursday, played again Saturday, played Monday night on the road, and play on the road here as well. Now, the last two games are in the same location, Los Angeles, which is slightly less bad than having to go to a different city, but that’s the most positive thing you can say about the Thunder’s predicament. To add to that problem, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is dealing with a sprained knee and is questionable to even play. He generally toughs it out and fights through to play, but based on how he looked last night and how this line has moved, I don’t think we’ll see him on the floor. Even if he does play, he’ll be far from his best as will his teammates against a Clippers team that matches up very well with the Thunder. Los Angeles is one of the few teams as deep as OKC, so the Thunder won’t enjoy their usual advantage when the bench units face each other. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are much bigger, better, and more experience than the players that will be asked to defend them tonight. All of this adds up to a comfortable Clippers win and my projections agree as well. I’m laying the 6.5 points with LA.
Bet
Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers -3.5, 228.5
A few times a season, I open the NBA injury report and have myself a good cry. Usually, it’s for a Miami Heat game, but here it’s for Denver. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope — a group better known as the Denver starting five — are all listed as questionable. If everyone is out, this line should be 76ers -13.5, not -3.5. If everyone plays for Denver, we’re looking at 76ers -1.5 or maybe a little lower. That tells me the market thinks that the Nuggets will have most, if not all of their starting unit. I would think that a matchup between the winners of the last three MVP trophies would be a game both teams would do their best to make sure their stars were on the court. Unfortunately, Denver did this last year in Philadelphia, and Jokic missed that game. I’m not calling Jokic a coward, but this writer will surely find it a bit odd if he keeps ducking Joel Embiid in Philly. As for bets, we have to wait for the injury report to settle. I’ll be sure to post any bets I do make in the FTNBets Discord #nba-plays channel, but nothing for now.
Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns -4.5, 243.5
The Suns finally have their big three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal playing together regularly. It’s a fascinating combination of scorers who are skilled and willing passers that may lead to a style of basketball that thrives without a true point guard. I still have doubts about the team’s ability to defend and execute in the playoffs against defenses ready for them, but their offensive upside seems almost endless. It should be a fun matchup against a Sacramento Kings that loves to play fast and generate as many points as possible rather than try to stop their opponent from scoring. My projections came out pretty close to market, but a lot of that hinges on the presence of Keegan Murray. The second year player is quickly becoming arguably the best scorer on the team and is a piece the Kings need to win tonight. He’s listed as questionable and if he plays, I like the Kings +4.5, but we just don’t know yet. I’ll add that play in the FTNBets Discord if Murray is announced in and this line doesn’t move more than a point.
