Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Happy Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day! Please make sure you spend some time today reflecting on the good Dr. King’s words and messages. It’s easy to find his speeches online and they are full of wisdom, accountability and calls to action for a better tomorrow. As for today, we’ve got a lot of NBA! Silly rhyming aside, this is a great day for basketball and makes me miss the schedule from the bubble. I’m not saying we need another pandemic, but more midday NBA would be just fine for me.
It might be harder to sell tickets and fill arenas, but I have faith that NBA fans could find a way to sneak out of work, pretend to be sick or do whatever it takes to be there to support their home team. I was unable to finish this piece in time for the start of the early games, so check out my thread on Twitter at @_noops if you want to know about the first few matchups. Let’s dive into the remaining handful and see where we might find some value.
Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Line – Cavaliers -4, 221.5
My Projection – Cavaliers 118, Bulls 111
Key Injuries – Evan Mobley and Darius Garland are out.
Let me be clear, the Cavaliers would be much better with Evan Mobley and Darius Garland playing. Now that we have that on the record, I must say that the Cavaliers have been playing pretty good basketball with just Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen and a strong supporting cast. Mitchell is one of the best scoring guards in the league, and without Garland, he can take as many shots as he needs to be comfortable and score enough points to help Cleveland win games. He’s developed a great chemistry with Allen, who is averaging 17.2 points per game in January, which is three more than he averaged all of last season. Supporting pieces like Max Strus, Isaac Okoro, Dean Wade and Utah State legend, Sam Merrill, have played well in increased roles that require more minutes. Cleveland continues its long homestand against a Chicago Bulls team that I consider to be much worse. The Bulls have been winning games, but just barely against some of the worst teams in the NBA. With Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine back, there is not enough usage to go around on offense, and both are minus defenders. Until LaVine gets traded or Vucevic gets moved to the bench for Andre Drummond, Chicago is a team that can struggle to score and be attacked on defense. I make the Cavaliers seven-point favorites, so I’ll bet them -4.
Bet
Cleveland Cavaliers -4 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies +8.5, 226.5
Draymond Green is back! I hope that his time off has been good, because the Warriors need to start winning games immediately. This is a tough game to make a number for because I’m not sure what to expect from Golden State with Green, and the Grizzlies have not been an easy puzzle to solve either. This looks like a clear-cut Warriors blowout win, but that’s not how their season has gone this year. That said, the Grizzlies have been curiously competitive since Ja Morant was announced to be out for the rest of the season. Perhaps knowing that Morant is not coming makes the urgency to win clearer, but regardless they have performed better than I expected. No bets for me in this game.
Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets -1.5, 220.5
This is a brutal schedule spot for Miami. It is their third game in four nights and the second night of a back-to-back that required them to fly to Brooklyn. I think this is a good game to back Brooklyn, but we have to wait for some injury news to clear up before we make a wager. Jimmy Butler has missed several games and is listed questionable for tonight’s affair. That’s generally a sign that Butler is more likely to play than not since he’s been “upgraded to questionable,” which is just an absurd, oxymoronic phrase that’s part of the NBA. If Butler is in, I’m going to bet on the Nets if the spread moves to a pick-em or Brooklyn is an underdog. If Butler is out, I’m going to bet the Nets -3 or better. I’ll put that pick in the FTNBets Discord.
Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors +6.5, 239.5
Jaylen Brown is out, which is why this spread may look a little small to you at first. These prices line up with my projections which is annoying, because it means the value on Toronto Raptors team total overs is gone. The market always catches up, and it’s finally attuned to how good the Toronto offense has been since acquiring Immanuel Quickley. This should be a very fun game. Both teams can score, both teams can defend a little and there’s no rest concerns or lookahead distractions. Enjoy the basketball, but there are no bets I would advise.
Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz -7.5, 245.5
The Pacers have, well, um, I’m really sorry about this, lost their pace! In all seriousness, it’s wild how much different this team has looked without Tyrese Haliburton. Although T.J. McConnell is a perfectly fine second-unit point guard, he is not ready to lead the starting five, although he is the only strong ball-handler left in Indiana. For the second night in a row, and the third time in four days, the Pacers have to play a basketball game, and tonight they have to play at altitude in Utah. The Jazz are deservedly big favorites, but a little too big for me to bet. I make this game a 7-point spread. Indiana is a shell of what it was in November, but the team can still hit a few late threes to get inside this number. I’m going to pass on this game.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers +1.5
I was so excited to bet on the Thunder, but unfortunately that’s not going to happen. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable tonight, and without the MVP candidate, I can’t in good conscience trust the Thunder. The Lakers have been bad for weeks, and I’d happily bet against them at this price if SGA was playing. But if he is announced in, this spread will move in a big way.
