Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s a TNT Thursday with two potential playoff previews for us to enjoy. It’s still very early in the season, but teams still raise their level when facing a squad they may have to play in April or May.
These are opportunities to test out plays or schemes you may want to use again in the playoffs. Let’s dive into the two national TV games and the three others to see what we might expect and where value might lie in the betting markets.
Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Current Line – Thunder -12.5, 235.5
My Projection – Thunder 124, Trail Blazers 108
Key Injuries – Deandre Ayton is doubtful.
Two teams in tough travel spots face off in a game that I will not be watching, but I will be betting. The Portland Trail Blazers are playing their sixth consecutive road game and play on the road again tomorrow. It’s brutal for a team to travel that much, and their play tends to deteriorate the longer the road trip goes. This is the type of schedule spot that makes a bad team a terrible team, and that’s exactly what I’m betting on. Portland has a messy roster full of young players who are not ready to play good NBA basketball, veterans who are more focused on staying healthy for their potential trade and Deandre Ayton, who doesn’t seem interested in playing basketball even when healthy. They managed to win a few games, but those wins have come against teams that are bad, in bad schedule spots or both. Tonight they face the Oklahoma City Thunder, who did play in Miami just last night, but are built as well as any team to handle back-to-backs. The Thunder have a young, deep roster full of players who can handle playing 30+ minutes consecutive nights with quality backups. They are 3-1 on the second night of a back-to-back this season. The Thunder are favored by almost 13 points, and I make them 16-point favorites, but there’s an angle I like better. The Trail Blazers are averaging just 101 points per game during this road trip, and although I have them projected seven points higher than that, I’m still not close to their team total. I’m going to bet Portland’s team total under 110.5 at +100. If you see under 111.5 -115 or better, that’s a fine bet as well, but I’d rather sell down a point for the better price.
Bet
Portland Trail Blazers Team Total Under 110.5 (+100, BetMGM)
New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks
Current Line – Knicks -3.5, 234
My Projection – Knicks 120, Mavericks 112
Key Injuries – Luka Doncic and Mitchell Robinson are out. Dereck Lively is doubtful.
The new version of the New York Knicks have been unstoppable. Since acquiring OG Anunoby, they are 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread. Does that mean they’re going to cover every game the rest of the season? Of course not, but it does mean the market has not adjusted New York’s rating high enough yet. I was concerned about the loss of Mitchell Robinson, who was a key contributor, but Isaiah Hartenstein has been arguably better than Robinson. Hartenstein is among the league leaders in defensive metrics and is grabbing as many rebounds as the guy he replaced. Anunoby has been a perfect fit. The Knicks need a big wing who can defend well, and the Toronto Raptors are arguably the best perimeter defender in the NBA. The Mavericks are missing two of their most important players. One is obviously Luka Doncic, but the other is Dereck Lively. The rookie center is the best pick-and-roll partner, rebounder and rim defender for Dallas, and without him the Mavericks have struggled on both ends of the court. The offense is still great with Luka and Kyrie Irving, but it’s just Kyrie tonight. This is the fifth consecutive home game for the Mavericks, which is usually a good time to back the home team, but the change in the lineup trumps that concern. New York is the better team at almost every position and has no rest or lookahead concerns. My model makes the Knicks an eight-point favorite, and the current spread is only 3.5, so I’ll happily bet that.
Bet
New York Knicks -3.5 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks -3, 244.5 – This line opened Bucks -6/6.5 which tells me the bookmakers expected some Boston players to miss this game. The Celtics played an overtime game in Boston last night against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Normally, I wouldn’t expect the Celtics to rest players against another Eastern Conference contender, but this would be the game to do it if there ever was one. The spread is down to 3 and still moving, which tells me the bettors disagree with the bookmakers about the potential for Boston to rest one or two of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday and/or Kristaps Porzingis. It’s been a fascinating market to watch all morning, and I’m curious to see how things settle once the injury report is more clear, but that does mean we can’t confidently place a wager at this time. I may have a wager later in the day, so make sure you’re in the FTN Bets Discord because I will add that bet in the #nba-plays channel if/when I make it.
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers -1, 238.5 – These are two teams that have me confused at the moment. The Lakers won their last two games, but not in convincing fashion. Los Angeles is far from the team we saw late last year. The Phoenix Suns will get to see their big three for just the fourth time this season. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal should be the core of a devastating offense, but in the limited time we’ve seen them they have not been great. The Suns are still among the higher rated teams by the betting markets, and that genuinely confuses me based on how mediocre they’ve played basketball this season. My projections show a little value on the over and the Suns, but not enough to warrant a wager even if I did feel good about my understanding of both teams.
