Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Brooklyn Nets are the clear NBA betting favorites in a championship-or-bust season. Sportsbooks have given New York’s second basketball team the best odds to win the 2022 NBA Finals since the preseason.
Brooklyn became the team to beat by adding James Harden to a roster led by Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in January 2020. The Nets might have the most talented trio of players in league history. The team also failed to reach last year’s conference finals and has some major obstacles standing in their way.
The latest impediment is Durant‘s knee injury, which is expected to sideline the forward at least through the All-Star Game. Harden started the season out of shape and struggled with rule changes. Irving still can’t play in New York City because he’s not vaccinated against COVID-19.
Let’s take a look at the Nets’ betting odds for the season.
Gilles Gallant tracks all the NBA title odds here.
Brooklyn Nets Championship Odds
Brooklyn leads the top tier of championship contenders with +250 odds to win the title at BetMGM, where their odds have largely stayed the same for months. The Golden State Warriors are viewed as the Nets’ biggest threat with +450 championship odds. The Milwaukee Bucks (+700) and Phoenix Suns (+800) are the only other teams with better than +1200 odds to win the NBA Finals.
The Eastern Conference is basically considered to be a two-team race between Brooklyn and Milwaukee. The Nets are heavy favorites to win the East with +130 odds, followed by the Bucks at +275. The Miami Heat are a distant third with +525 odds to reach the NBA Finals.
The defending champion Bucks are not favorites because they were fortunate to get past the Nets in the second round of the 2021 playoffs. Milwaukee needed seven games and an overtime to eliminate an injury-riddled Brooklyn team. Irving and Harden missed seven combined games, and the latter played on one leg in Games 5-7. Durant nearly carried the Nets to the conference finals with 35.4 points, 10.6 rebounds and 5.4 assist per game, indicating that no one can beat Brooklyn when its stars are healthy.
Does Brooklyn have an MVP candidate?
Durant was a top-two MVP candidate until he suffered a sprained MCL Jan. 15. Durant leads the NBA with 29.3 points per game and had +240 MVP odds shortly before getting hurt, trailing only Stephen Curry in the race. Now that he’ll miss four to six weeks, Durant’s MVP odds are down to +1400 at BetMGM. If he returns right after the All-Star break, Durant will have already missed 23 games. Expect the Nets to be cautious with arguably the best player in the world.
Curry (+150) is favored to win his third MVP award. Giannis Antetokounmpo (+350) is a threat to win his third MVP in four years. Reigning MVP Nikola Jokic (+650) and Joel Embiid (+1200) have better odds than Durant.
Harden is a long shot to win the award in 2022. Eleven players have better MVP odds than Harden (+10000), who won the 2018 MVP and has five other top-five finishes. Harden’s MVP campaign might’ve ended in the first 12 games when he averaged a disappointing 18.2 points on 40.9% shooting. Harden came back with averages of 26.3 points, 8.9 rebounds and 11.1 assists per game in December. The three-time scoring champ is playing at an All-Star level, yet he hasn’t been his old MVP-caliber self.
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Nets Face Big Questions on Road to Finals
The Nets have been top-two seed for most of the season and are -200 favorites to win the division. Even with their stars in and out of the lineup last season, Brooklyn posted the most efficient offense (117.3 points per 100 possessions) in league history. Still, several questions raise concerns that the team won’t reach its ceiling.
The Nets’ offense has taken a step back this season, despite Durant’s brilliance. Harden has not been quite the same superstar the Nets traded for a year ago, scoring his fewest points in a decade. Unless something drastic changes, Irving won’t be available for half the team’s playoff games.
Can Brooklyn win it all if Harden is simply an All-Star and not a clear top-10 player? What about if Irving is a road-only player? Does it matter that the Nets’ Big 3 has only played 10 regular-season games together since teaming up?
Based on the odds, the Warriors, Bucks and Suns might all be better bets for the championship because of their continuity and the reliability of their top players.
