Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s not an NBA slate without injuries to deal with, and Monday’s slate brings plenty of them. Multiple players are listed as questionable that could change the slate in an instant, but we can start attacking spots without that full knowledge.
1. DraftKings is broken when they price Tyrese Haliburton
Will he ever be priced correctly on that site? It doesn’t appear so, because even after another 50+ DK point game, Tyrese Haliburton is still just $8,500. If he had more name value or played for a team that wasn’t the Indiana Pacers, he’d be closing in on $10,000, but we can continue to exploit it. The Brooklyn Nets are 29th in defensive rating, and their coach is questioning their desire in the first 10 days of the season. Haliburton is up to 1.42 points per minute with a 45.2% assist rate and is at least $1,000 too cheap for a game with a total of 235 points.
2. The Charlotte Hornets are second in the league in possessions per game
They are averaging 108.0 possessions every time they take the floor, and the Sacramento Kings aren’t too far behind. They rank 12th at 104.5, so we should expect fireworks in this spot, and it’s the third game to target in the NBA Game Environment Tool. I will be working toward having at least 1-2 players from this game, and the Charlotte side offers a lot of value plays in Dennis Smith, Gordon Hayward and Kelly Oubre.
3. The Washington Wizards allow the sixth-highest field goal rate from the 3-point range
They’re facing the Philadelphia 76ers, and Joel Embiid did not participate in the shoot-around this afternoon. That would make me believe he’s unlikely to play, and Tyrese Maxey is still just $6,000 on DK. When Embiid has been off the floor, Maxey is enjoying a 72.0% true shooting rate and 1.20 points per minute. Even when that true shooting rate goes down (and that is inevitable), Maxey is far too cheap, and Washington has not defended the 3-point line well at all yet.
4. The Grizzlies could be the key to this slate
Memphis is in Utah tonight, which means the tip for the game is not until 9:00 p.m. ET. Both Ja Morant and Desmond Bane are questionable, and that game has a tight spread, which means one of them will probably be out. If we get news on the front end of the slate that Embiid is out, will the field leave spots on their roster for Tyus Jones and Dillon Brooks? Those two are phenomenal plays if one of Morant or Bane sits again, let alone if they both sit. I’m hoping we don’t have Grizzlies news and people avoid it at lock because it could be something to exploit in Discord after the slate starts.
5. Kawhi Leonard is out
John Wall is also not expected to play tonight, so the Clippers will continue to be short-handed, which opens up some appealing plays. The Houston Rockets played last night and are in the bottom-five in defensive rating as it is, and we have very cheap options like Norman Powell, Marcus Morris and even Paul George, who is relatively inexpensive. You could argue that he’s expensive for the production he’s put out this year, but the ceiling is certainly not reflected in a $9,300 salary.
