Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It is finally one of the best times of the year — NFL is going full tilt, we have playoff MLB games, and most importantly, we have regular season NBA action Tuesday night. If you’re new, welcome in, and thank you for joining the best team in the DFS industry for the season. The tools and content coming this year are incredible, and we hope to help guide everyone to making some big money this season. We’ll highlight five stats to know every night to give a lay of the land for the slate. We do only have two games Tuesday, but there are still stars galore to choose from.
Joel Embiid Led the NBA in Free Throw Attempts
Not only does Joel Embiid have the free throws going for him, but he is also my highest priority on this slate. Embiid has the highest salary on DK and just $100 behind on FD. The Advanced DvP Tool shows us that Boston was in the bottom 10 in points allowed to skilled centers and Embiid more than qualifies for that. He averaged 55 DK points last season and even once James Harden rolled into town, Embiid maintained a 37.5% usage rate and 1.68 points per minute with both players on the floor. We also have to factor in Boston is missing Robert Williams for the next few weeks, so the defense in the paint is going to be much worse in this matchup. Additionally, Boston allowed the seventh-most points per game in post-up play types while Embiid led the league in points scored via post-ups at 6.5 points per game. Embiid has an easier matchup due to injury and if you want to, you can lean into the narrative of him not winning MVP last year. He’s going to be on a mission this season once again.
The Minimum Salary on DraftKings is $3,000
I’m cheating a little bit because that’s not exactly a stat, but it’s important for Tuesday’s slate because Kendrick Nunn is the minimum on DK. He’s also only $4,300 on FD and is almost surely going to be one of the most popular players on the slate. He’s going to be a very important piece for the Lakers this season off the bench and they need him to score after having a lost season in 2021-22. Throughout his career, he’s averaged 15 points per game and has shot 36.4% from beyond the arc. Last year, the Warriors allowed the eighth-highest three-point attempt frequency at 41.6% and were 11th in raw three-point attempts. Pricing as a whole is soft but playing Nunn allows for a lot of flexibility.
There Are 48 Minutes in an NBA Game
Sure, I’m cheating again, but this is important because Warriors coach Steve Kerr has said that his starters are not ready to play 30-plus minutes in the opening game. Knowing that, the grouping of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins comes with a little bit more risk than they normally would. Of course, players like Curry and Thompson can go off in “limited” minutes. We’re talking about two of the best shooters the NBA has seen. Thompson was third in points scored from catch-and-shoot attempts last season at 7.8 and they were 1-2 in points scored off screens as well. The Lakers were in the bottom 10 in both points allowed and points per possession when they defended attempts off screens, so the upside is there. Still, it makes more sense to play Embiid, LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, Anthony Davis and others, since they are more likely to play 35 minutes or more. The Warriors playing more depth players allows us to take some shots with cheaper players like Jonathan Kuminga and possibly Donte DiVincenzo to get that exposure and prioritize others. The optimizer will help make some of those decisions tonight. After all, the Lakers game has a higher total by almost 10 points, and their stack rating grades out higher than the Celtics game in our NBA Game Environment tool.
18 Assists
That is the number of assists for Malcolm Brogdon in 47.5 minutes of preseason action for the Celtics this year. Brogdon came over in a trade from the Pacers and is in line to serve as the sixth man, running the offense for a chunk of the game. It will be interesting to see how he meshes with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown this year but when he was active last season, he was 10th in points scored from drives to the basket. While the presence of Embiid can deter him away from the basket, Brogdon passed 48.9% of the time when he drove and that was the highest rate among the top 10. Not only does he have more talented players to pass the ball to on Boston, but Brogdon should also be on the floor when Montrezl Harrell plays center for Philly. Harrell has long been a defensive liability and is something Brogdon can exploit near the rim. It’s a strong mix for Brogdon, who is at a very appealing salary on all sites.
1.31 Points Per Minute
Let’s just be frank: Anthony Davis can be a punching bag as far as how many times he’s dealt with minor injuries and has cost DFS players a ton of money over the years. However, it’s easy to get lost in that and forget that across nearly 1,400 minutes last year, Davis was at 1.31 points per minute and only trailed LeBron James by 0.15. His salary is likely about as low as it’s going to go this season and most people should flock to James, who is only $700 more on both DK and FD. Of course, there is nothing wrong with that but let’s not forget Davis and the potential leverage he can provide. Davis also was third in post-ups last season and the Warriors allowed the 10th most points when facing the post-up. The mix of Kevon Looney and James Wiseman should be no match for Davis down low, and Golden State was also 20th when facing superstar skilled centers. Granted, Davis isn’t a true center by the traditional definition, but he’s a double-double threat, and much more appealing here with an affordable salary, especially on DK.
