Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are eight NBA games total Saturday, with seven on the main DFS slate, featuring five games with spreads under eight points. Even the two games that have wider spreads are still very appealing and there Is likely to be plenty of news, with eight of 14 teams having played Friday.
1. Nic Claxton averages 15.6 rebound chances per game
The Brooklyn Nets travel to Charlotte to face the Hornets and Claxton is a strong mid-range play for center tonight. Not only do the Hornets rank dead last against rebounders, but they are also in the bottom 10 in rebounds allowed in the paint. Claxton is at 8.8 rebounds per game and the strong matchup could push him into double-double territory.
2. John Collins scores 3.3 points per game as the roll man
Collins is also shooting 76.9% on those attempts, racking up 1.53 points per possession, and Collins has the highest points per possession for any player with over two possessions per game. The Pelicans have not handled that play type well as they are in the bottom 10 in points allowed per game and points per possession. Collins is a solid way to get access to a game with a total of over 230 points.
3. Houston allows the most points in transition in the league at 28.3 points per game
The duo of Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards should be able to do well in that play type, and KAT is averaging five points per game in transition already. Edwards is at 2.4 points per game but both have an effective field goal rate of over 70% on the season. Both teams play at a top-eight pace and are in the top 13 in possessions per game, so the high total is deserved.
4. The San Antonio Spurs are 29th in points allowed in the paint
I wonder what the perception is around Nikola Jokic since he hasn’t been the same force he was last year. While the Nuggets have to find the balance between Jokic taking 25 shots per night and playing with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter this year, the best version of the Nuggets does not include Jokic taking nine, 10, and four shots. That has happened in three of the past six games for Jokic and has kept the ceiling down but the Spurs bleed points in the paint and Jokic has been scoring over 50 DK points without shooting.
5. Kevin Durant’s salary on DK only rose $400
Unless the Nets elect to sit him, Durant is near an auto-play for me under $11,000 since Ben Simmons and Kyrie Irving remain out. The Hornets are 30th against scorers and 26th against point forwards, and Durant is commanding a 38.1% usage rate when those two players are off the court.
