Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s a crowded slate for the NBA today since we have two different slates.
It’s missing some star power, but there are at least one or two games on each slate that look very fantasy-friendly.
1. Anfernee Simons is third in 3-point attempts per game
He is one of four players who is attempting over 10 3-point field goals on average at 10.6, trailing only Stephen Curry and LaMelo Ball. Anfernee Simons and the Blazers take on the Brooklyn Nets, who are 20th in defensive rating and are also giving up the third-highest field goal rate from a 3-point distance. Simons is also leading the team in assist rate and shouldn’t be under $8,000 on DraftKings.
2. The Minnesota Timberwolves allow the eighth-highest field goal rate from a 3-point distance
Not only that, but they’re allowing the sixth-highest frequency, and that’s not a good thing when you’re about to face the Golden State Warriors. I’ll be working hard to play at least one of Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson in my early lineups since both are fairly priced and Thompson has started to heat up a little bit. Over his past five games, Thompson is shooting 51% and has a 25.6% usage rate on the season, while Curry is leading the team at 1.59 points per minute. With both teams in the top three in pace, there should be a ton of opportunity in this one.
3. Jayson Tatum is out for the Boston Celtics
Jaylen Brown is very underpriced for this scenario since his salary is not any different from a normal slate. When Jayson Tatum is off the floor, Brown is at 1.39 points per minute with a usage rate closing in on 38%, while the Wizards are 27th against scorers this year. We can play other Celtics with Brown to be a little less chalky, but I’m perfectly fine eating what I suspect will be heavy chalk for Brown.
4. Paolo Banchero played 36 minutes in his last game
It was the first game back from his injury and he had missed two weeks. The Magic clearly feel that he’s 100% healthy and are still without Cole Anthony and could be without a host of players. Even if it’s just Anthony who misses, Paolo Banchero is over 1.20 points per minute and his price took a tumble. That’s a bonus for us, and Banchero is 10th in points scored in isolation. It’s not an easy matchup, as the 76ers are average in points per game allowed, but they’re facing it at the third-highest frequency, and the loss of Joel Embiid hurts the defense overall.
5. Jrue Holiday is down to $7,000 on DraftKings
It’s been a little while since he’s been this affordable, and the Mavericks are 30th against crafty finishers and 19th against primary ball-handlers. He had some foul trouble in the last game and shot very poorly, which is not indicative of what he’s been doing for the Bucks this season. He has a 25.7% usage rate and 1.23 points per minute, which means he shouldn’t be this cheap.
