Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s an interesting slate with no game carrying a large spread and plenty of spots to attack. Just about every game has a solid total, and for eight games we are mostly healthy.
The NBA is incapable of having a fully healthy slate, but this one is looking fairly straightforward, so let’s talk about five stats that can help us get ready for tonight.
1. Tyrese Haliburton is scoring 1.37 points per minute
He’s going to need it at this salary, which has finally risen to a point where we have to think about playing him. However, Indiana is playing at the ninth-fastest pace in the league and they’re ninth in possessions per game. Orlando is also 21st against primary ball-handlers, while this game checks in as the top option in the NBA Game Environment Tool. The pick-and-roll data is very strong for Tyrese Haliburton as well since he’s scoring the ninth-most points per game as the ball-handler, and Orlando gives up the 10th-highest effective field goal rate in that play type. At this salary, the quickest way to hit value is to score the ball, and this is a great spot to do it.
2. The Knicks are 30th against primary ball-handlers
This is one of the best fantasy games of the night, at least on paper. The spread is under three points, the total is over 230 and both teams are in the top 12 in pace. If that wasn’t enough, they’re also in the bottom 12 in defensive rating, and Josh Giddey is scoring 1.17 points per minute on a 23.9% usage rate. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to benefit from the matchup, but Giddey has my eyes here for $3,200 cheaper. These two teams just played a little over a week ago and produced a 280-point score-fest, but Giddey doesn’t need to score near 60 DK points to be viable here.
3. Klay Thompson should sit the second leg of a back-to-back
Klay Thompson had his best game of the season last night but also played 36 minutes, and we shouldn’t expect him to play tonight. If that’s the case, Jordan Poole is going to be a very chalky option, and identifying good chalk has been vital this year. Poole has the most minutes without Thompson at 330, and the next-closest player is JaMychal Green at 201. The Pelicans are 17th against primary ball-handlers, and Poole is sitting at a 28.1% usage rate without Thompson this season. He shouldn’t have been priced under $6,000, and in the three games Thompson has missed, he’s scored 44.8, 36.5 and 52 DK points, while two of those games have come with Stephen Curry active.
4. Mike Conley is out for the Jazz
I would not expect him to start or the role to change, but Malik Beasley has played at least 27 minutes in four of the past five games and has paid that off with at least 29.5 DK points. Beasley is shooting 43.0% from beyond the arc, and even though the Clippers aren’t a strong matchup in that facet, nothing will stop Beasley from shooting since he’s averaging 7.5 attempts per game. I wonder if Collin Sexton picks up more steam if he starts, but Beasley is flashing a big-time role off the bench with a salary that hasn’t moved very much yet.
5. I want to play the Magic center
I may not know who that is yet, but Wendell Carter or Mo Bamba will be in a spectacular spot tonight. Carter is questionable, but he missed shootaround this morning, while Paolo Banchero is still out for the Magic. In that scenario, Bamba is averaging 1.19 points per minute and is still under $6,000. The Pacers are in the bottom five in points allowed in the paint, and we talked about the pace and lack of defense in this game, so I’m heading right back to the well.
