Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There are only four games on the NBA main DFS slate for Saturday, but at least the Heat aren’t one of them. They barely had enough players to field a team Friday, and that made for some unique opportunities. We’re going to have some chalky players with the 76ers on a back-to-back and missing their two starting guards.
1. Joel Embiid has scored 1.96 points per minute without James Harden and Tyrese Maxey
Embiid is going to be the most popular player Saturday, and he should be. The 76ers should be extremely shorthanded when they host the Wolves, and Embiid is going to be the majority of the offense. He’s playing out of this world right now for fantasy, with 133 real points in the last three games. The only way Embiid will not be in my lineups is if he happens to sit out on a back-to-back, and the 76ers don’t have that luxury.
2. Anthony Edwards had his salary drop after scoring 63.0 DK points last game
This almost feels like a trap because Edwards is extremely talented but extremely inconsistent. The Wolves are trying to figure out their new team with very mixed results so far, but Edwards does lead them in usage rate at 26.7%. He’s also taken 263 attempts and while 111 have come within five feet, 129 have come from 15 feet or further away from the basket. That’s about 49% of his attempts and should keep him further away from Embiid. If we’re all playing Embiid, having a Wolves player would make some sense and Edwards stands out even with the nervousness that comes from playing him.
3. Jusuf Nurkic is seventh in rebound chances per game
The big man for Portland recently dealt with an injury but played 25 minutes in his last game after playing 15 in the first game back. We shouldn’t have many concerns about the minutes and it’s a great spot for Nurkic as Utah is 22nd against rebounders this year and 23rd in rebounds allowed in the paint. With his salary under $7,000 on DK, I’m very interested in playing a two-center approach with Embiid.
4. Devin Vassell and Jakob Poeltl are questionable for the Spurs
San Antonio plays in the late window and play again Sunday, so this feels like a spot where we get some shenanigans. If those two players do sit out, Tre Jones gets a huge bump of 5.6% in usage and 0.26 in points per minute and becomes a strong bargain. It will take some planning because two of these games are early and two are late, which could help push a significant amount of the field into the early window. Jones would be one of the stronger plays on the slate that may not get much attention.
5. I’m ready to be hurt again by Kawhi Leonard
All right, that’s not a stat, but Thursday, the FTN crew played a lot of Kawhi Leonard, and he was just 1% rostered. I guess you could say we were the only ones that played him. Leonard was terrible, but he did play 24 minutes. We would expect that number to rise as we go, the salary went down, the Spurs are 30th in defensive rating, and they are seventh in pace. It won’t take long for Leonard to play 28-30 minutes and be well worth this salary.
