Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The seven-game slate tonight could provide a challenge for us, because six of the seven games lock by 8:00 p.m. ET, and then the seventh game doesn’t lock until two hours later.
Hopefully, we’re going to have news from that game in enough time, because if not, that’s a serious monkey wrench. Let’s get our outline going for tonight.
1. The Raptors are missing three starting players
We typically don’t see this until later in the season, but the Raptors are going to be extremely thin tonight. They have a lot of cheaper players to target to fill out lineups on a rotation of only 8-9 players, and the Pistons are 30th in defensive rating. Even with the losses, Toronto is still favored, and Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby will have to carry a lot of the load tonight. Chris Boucher has put together two strong games in a row and will have to play tonight with his 1.42 points per minute. This will likely be the most popular team of the night, and we should be prepared to play a ton of Raptors.
2. Jrue Holiday remains out for the Milwaukee Bucks
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Perhaps this is the simplest way to look at the slate, but it’s so easy to play the value from Toronto and slot in Giannis Antetokounmpo after that. He is the only player on the slate who is over $11,000, so there isn’t a choice to be made between a player like Giannis or Luka Doncic. Giannis is averaging 1.88 points per minute when Holiday is off the floor, and it’s going to be easy to play him.
3. Charles Bassey is scoring 1.65 points per minute
Can we strike twice with Charles Bassey? I believe so, because the Spurs take on the Warriors tonight in one of the most appealing games for fantasy. Bassey may top out at 18-20 minutes, but he’s producing at a crazy clip. Golden State is also 28th against rebounders and allows the most points in the paint. At such a cheap salary, I’ll take a shot on the big man because the field is likely (and justifiably) going to flock toward the cheap Toronto players.
4. Stephen Curry has a 35.7% usage rate when Klay Thompson is off the floor
Stephen Curry said last night that he’s playing, and the spread would indicate that as well, with the Warriors being 7-8 point favorites against the Spurs. These two teams play at blazing paces and are in the top four in possessions per game. Curry will have even more work to do without Klay Thompson, and in the lone back-to-back he’s played, he scored 32 real points despite shooting 4-of-14 from a 3-point distance. Additionally, the Spurs have allowed the sixth-highest field goal rate from beyond the arc this season.
5. The Hornets are allowing the sixth-highest points per possession against isolation
Charlotte takes on the Orlando Magic tonight, and it appears that Paolo Banchero should make his return after a brief absence from the lineup. Not only does he average 1.25 points per minute when the Magic are shorthanded, but he’s also scoring the 12th-most points per game in isolation. Some will likely balk at the salary, but Banchero is already averaging 42.0 DK points per game this season and the Hornets are also just 18th in defensive rating.
