Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tonight’s six-game slate is an interesting one and has a couple of late-night hammers that look like they could be the most appealing games on the slate.
We also have one team that is likely to be without their star backcourt, so let’s see where we’re looking to go tonight.
1. Tyus Jones has 1.04 points per minute without Ja Morant and Desmond Bane
He’s going to be the chalkiest player on the slate since DraftKings has him priced at just $3,600. That’s fine by me, because I’m not looking to fade him at all. He’s dishing the ball with a 33.3% assist rate in that scenario, and the usage rate is 24.5%. This is value we should eat and find differences elsewhere.
2. Jamal Murray played 35 minutes in the last game
The guard spot is loaded tonight, but we shouldn’t lose sight that Jamal Murray appears to be all the way back from his ACL injury. This was the first time he hit 35 minutes on the season, and we haven’t even seen the ceiling yet because his shot hasn’t fully returned. He only went 6-for-17 from the floor last time out, and this game has one of the highest totals on the night.
3. Stephen Curry is scoring 33.3 points per game
It’s bad enough for the Kings that they have to deal with Stephen Curry again tonight while allowing the second-highest field goal rate from a 3-point distance. The total of this game is the highest of the night, and Curry is scoring points in bunches while shooting 44% from deep. Both teams are in the bottom five in defensive rating and in the top 12 in pace, making this a perfect fantasy game.
4. Domantas Sabonis is scoring 1.31 points per minute
The big man for the Kings doesn’t have a big usage rate at under 23%, but he produces and the Warriors struggle to defend the paint. They are 29th in points allowed, while Domantas Sabonis is eighth in points scored in the paint and sixth in rebound chances per game. With some of the cheaper guards and other values we’ll have, it’s not hard to have a mini-stack in this game.
5. Kevin Durant has a 32.8% usage rate without Kyrie Irving
Kyrie Irving is still out, so Kevin Durant is still carrying the load as the team heads into Los Angeles to play the Lakers tonight. LA’s pace is the fastest in the NBA and they’re down to 17th in defensive rating, while the Advanced DvP Tool shows us that the matchup is phenomenal.
