Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have an interesting eight-game NBA DFS slate Friday, with players who are already ruled out, opening up some different avenues for lineups. It’s probably going to be tough to avoid one particular game but that doesn’t mean we don’t have a bunch of good spots.
1. Jevon Carter is up to 1.24 points per minute without Jrue Holiday and Giannis Antetokounmpo out
We’ll start with the chalk, as Holiday and Giannis are still out for the Milwaukee Bucks against San Antonio. I don’t think anyone had Carter scoring over 60 DK points in the last game on their bingo card, but he has a 27.3% usage rate and a 40.5% assist rate in his 66-minute sample size. The salary is still super affordable, and even though he’s much more likely for around 30-35 DK points, the Spurs are fifth in pace and 29th in defensive rating.
2. Charles Bassey played 16 minutes in the last game
If the Spurs and Bucks are going to be popular, finding a sneaky way to get involved in it could pay big dividends. It may not seem like a big injury, but Zac Collins is out for San Antonio and coach Gregg Popovich has said Bassey could see extra minutes. He did only manage 16 minutes but had some foul trouble with four in those 16 minutes. In his minimal court time, the points per minute have been 1.50 and Collins had played at least 21 minutes in the three games before his injury. The salary is dirt cheap for Bassey to hit 20 minutes and the matchup is far better without Giannis patrolling the defensive end. This is certainly not a cash play, but we can punt this position and spend up elsewhere.
3. The Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies are at a 234-point total
It’s the second game in the NBA Game Environment Tool and even though Ja Morant is $10,000 on DK, he’s very appealing. Morant is sporting a 35.9% usage rate and 1.47 points per route in addition to scoring 16.2 points per game from drives to the basket. Rudy Gobert does man the paint for the Wolves, but Morant played Gobert four times last season. It was a different team, but Morant scored 32, 12, 36 and 32 points in those four games. He also took at least 11 free throw attempts in three of those four games so Gobert is not a concern for me in this situation.
4. The Warriors have a -22.4 rating when Stephen Curry is off the floor
Curry has been phenomenal for the Warriors this season, and their net rating with him playing is 5.2. He simply can’t be off the floor for long stretches or the Warriors get smoked. The Cleveland Cavaliers allow the eighth-fewest 3-point attempts on the year and their defensive rating is third in the league. It may not matter all that much since Curry should play around 38 minutes and has 1.59 points per minute, not to mention he’s shooting 43.1% from beyond the arc on 12.3 attempts per game.
5. Darius Garland is scoring 1.02 points per minute
There is no getting around the fact that he was horrific in the last game, and he was among the chalkiest players on that slate. The Warriors are down to 27th in defensive rating and Golden State is also leading in possessions per game. The salary rose a little bit and that could keep his ownership a little lower despite him having a 28.1% usage rate. The true shooting rate so far is 49.8% compared to 54.9% last year.
