Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The seven-game NBA DFS slate Wednesday might be a bit of a tricky one, because three games feature a spread of at least eight points, raising the risk for games to a blowout. The Phoenix Suns game especially has these concerns since they are 13-point favorites but the salaries for their players are very tempting. Let’s talk about that and four other stats to help outline this slate.
1. Clint Capela has played 34 minutes or more in two of four games with Quin Snyder as coach
Now, one of those games that he pushed for 35 minutes was a bit lucky because Onyeka Okongwu was going to sub in for Capela, but the play just kept going without a stoppage. However, we could still be looking at 28-32 minutes against the Wizards Wednesday and that makes him very interesting. Capela is scoring 1.15 points per minute while he’s also eighth in rebound chances per game along with fourth in points per game in the paint. Washington is just 18th in points per game allowed in the paint and this game has the highest total on the evening. It’s also a very important game for the Eastern Conference standings so both teams should bring their best effort.
2. Donovan Mitchell is shooting 38.6% from a 3-point distance
Not only does Mitchell score 1.24 points per minute, but he also averages 9.4 3-point attempts per game. That number will probably get to 10 or higher since the Heat allow the second-highest frequency from deep on the season. They also are quietly struggling to defend the ball handler in the pick-and-roll. Miami is facing that play type at the lowest frequency but they’re allowing the ninth-highest field goal rate while Mitchell is fifth in points scored and eighth in possessions per game. He is pricey on FD and DK both if you’re just looking at the game total and pace, but Mitchell is in a much better spot than the surface metrics indicate.
3. The Chicago Bulls allow the third-highest 3-point frequency in the league
They are 10th in field goal rate allowed but Denver has players that can make you pay for allowing so many 3-point attempts. Since Chicago can throw Patrick Beverley and Alex Caruso at Jamal Murray all night, that could be just enough of a thorn in his side to mute his scoring. If that happens, we could see Michael Porter take a few extra shots but even if he doesn’t, the DK salary is very low for his ceiling. The FD salary is fine but not as great (I would just play Aaron Gordon there) but Porter is scoring 0.99 points per minute. He’s also shooting 41.2% from deep along with leading the league in points per game as a spot-up shooter. Chicago is just 25th in points per game allowed to spot-up shooters so the ceiling is sky-high for Porter and the FTN Advanced DvP Tool likes the matchup as well –
4. Kevin Durant played over 40 minutes Sunday
It’s safe to say that Durant has no restrictions remaining on his paying time for Phoenix and he’s now just $9,800 on DK. Yes, the Suns are 13.5-point favorites in this game but there is something to be said for the Suns needing playing time together to build their chemistry for the playoffs. I believe we could get at least 32 minutes from Durant unless this gets to an extreme difference in the game. Maybe this isn’t worth anything and it’s not a straight line, but the Suns played the Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in late February and the game was close. Phoenix didn’t have Durant back yet and that game has no bearing on this one but it’s just an interesting note. In Durant’s 98 minutes so far, he’s scoring 1.39 points per minute and could turn out to be a bargain if this game stays close.
5. The Clippers are 29th in points per game allowed in the past month at 125.0
The only team that has allowed more points in that span is Sacramento, which isn’t exactly the biggest surprise. I’m more than willing to pick on the defense of Russell Westbrook and over the past four games, Fred VanVleet is scoring over 41.0 DK points while dishing out 10.0 assists per game. Since Jakob Poeltl has been added to the lineup for the Raptors, VanVleet is second in points per minute at 1.18 and his assist rate has jumped up to 38.3%. On the season, the Clippers are seventh against primary ball handlers but that has gone backward in the past 15 games. Los Angeles is 29th, allowing almost 42.0 points per game to those players. Some of that might be due to allowing a 40.6% field goal rate from beyond the arc in the past month and that’s something that VanVleet could attempt to exploit. He’s averaging 8.8 3-point attempts per game and his salary is reasonable on both sites. The shooting is always a bit sketchy since he has a 52.8% true shooting rate since the Poeltl trade but a lot of factors lineup up for him in this game.
