Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have an interesting main slate for the NBA tonight, as all seven games have a spread of seven points or fewer, but only one has a total of over 230 points.
That includes another matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets, and as we saw on Saturday, that can produce a lot of fantasy points.
1. The Hornets allow the seventh-most points per game to spot-up shooters
That’s a nice boost for both Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson from the Nets. In their games with Brooklyn, they have scored 7.4 and 6.0 points per game in that play type, but I want to focus on Johnson. He’s scoring that many points as a spot-up shooter despite shooting just 32.1%, and that’s simply not going to stick for him. Charlotte is also allowing the 12th-highest field goal rate from a 3-point distance, and Johnson is shooting 41.5% from beyond the arc. Lastly, he’s racked up a 24.3% usage rate and 1.12 points per minute with the Nets. Johnson is one of my favorite ways to get a part of that game today, and Bridges is not far behind.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 17 points per game off driving to the basket
Even though the Utah Jazz have Walker Kessler manning the paint with his excellent blocking ability, Utah is just 27th in points per game allowed in the paint. They are also allowing the sixth-most field goal attempts within five feet of the basket, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should be able to get close to the hoop at will. The elephant in the room is if he’s going to get his normal minutes after missing five games. The Thunder are also within reach of the 10th seed in the Western Conference, sitting 1.5 games behind right now. They could choose to tank the rest of the season, but they can’t catch the four teams at the bottom of the standings, so Gilgeous-Alexander should be allowed to play plenty of minutes to pay off the $9,800 salary on DK.
3. Charles Bassey is scoring 1.18 points per minute without Jakob Poeltl
It’s risky because Charles Bassey plays under 20 minutes for the majority of his games. I will point out that the last time the Spurs played Zach Collins in a back-to-back scenario, Collins played 23 minutes. He only had three fouls, so he wasn’t in foul trouble, and if the Spurs trim him back to even 25 minutes or so, Bassey could go over 20 and that would make him a smash play. Houston is 18th against bench players, and Bassey hung nearly 30 DK points on them on Saturday night in just 18 minutes.
4. Washington is 19th in points per game allowed in the paint
There’s always a chance that Giannis Antetokounmpo sits out on the second leg of a back-to-back, but if he plays this is a wonderful spot for him after a bit of a flop (by his standards) on Saturday night –
The Wizards are struggling to guard the paint and also are allowing the fifth-most points per game in transition. We spoke about this on Saturday, but Giannis is scoring almost a third of his points in transition at 9.5 points per game. If Giannis sits, it’s an easy pivot to players such as Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis and others in this Bucks lineup. It will be extremely easy to pay for Giannis given who we’re going to talk about next.
5. Tyus Jones is $3,100 on DK
If you told me that Tyus Jones was going to be 100% rostered on DK this evening, I would believe you and be a part of that 100%. This is arguably the worst pricing that DK has done this year since they knew Memphis would be without Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks, without even mentioning Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams. The FTN Splits Tool shows us just how productive the average game is from Jones when Morant is missing –
Jones is competitively priced on FD, but I’m still playing him on that site as well. For DK, you hit the lock button and you don’t turn back at this salary.
