Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
For the most part Saturday night, the NBA DFS slate should be a blast, and competitive games should be the headline of the night. There is one game that has a spread over 15 points, but the other four are five points or fewer and there are some great game environments. We also have an island late-night hammer game that starts 90 minutes later than any game on the slate, so let’s highlight some players to target.
1. Trae Young is scoring 11.8 points per game as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll
That’s third in the league, trailing only Damian Lillard and Ja Morant. The Heat are an interesting matchup — on the surface, they allow the fewest points per game to the ball handler. On a deeper look, they might not be as good at defending this play type as it appears. For one thing, they have faced ball handlers in the pick-and-roll at the lowest frequency in the league. That won’t be the case tonight and they also allow the eighth-highest field goal rate to the ball handler. The Bucks and the 76ers game will get the headline, but these teams are the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in the East and they are a half-game apart. It’s a huge game and Young is scoring 1.35 points per minute.
2. The Spurs and Rockets are 30th and 29th in defensive rating
This should be a game filled with fantasy goodness, and the Spurs can push the pace (currently sixth in the league). My eyes are drawn to Jalen Green, who is only $6,200 on DK. The Rockets did get Kevin Porter back from injury, but he is likely to be limited a little bit for his minutes and even when he’s active, Green still has a 28.3% usage rate and 1.01 points per minute. San Antonio is 29th against primary ball handlers and they allow the highest field goal rate from downtown at 29.5%. The Nets are 29th at 37.6% so the Spurs remain well in front of every other team in the league and even though he’s hitting at just a 33.8% rate, Green attempts 7.6 3-point shots per game.
3. Devonte’ Graham is averaging 8.3 3-point attempts per game as a Spur
San Antonio has been dealing with injuries for all eight games that Graham has been there, and Saturday is no different. With who’s missing from the matchup with Houston (and there are still players listed as questionable), Graham could easily be looking at 10 attempts or more. Houston allows the highest frequency in the NBA and they back that up with the third-highest field goal rate allowed. Graham also carries a 22.6% usage rate and is likely going to be looking at nearly 30 minutes on the court. With the Spurs missing at least Devin Vassell and likely Keldon Johnson, there are going to be extra opportunities to shoot the ball and Graham is well-positioned to exploit a weakness from the Rockets.
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the NBA in points per game in transition at 9.5
That’s not the most surprising stat, because let’s face it – who’s getting in his way when he’s got a full head of steam coming down the court? He looks like the Hulk is going toward the hoop and that’s where nearly a third of his points come from. What is interesting is the 76ers are allowing the fifth-most points in transition and the highest field goal rate in the NBA while facing transition shots at the third-highest frequency. Since this is a face-off between two of the best teams in the league, we could see Giannis log 35 minutes and that’s typically when he starts being worth the immense salary.
5. Sacramento is allowing the second-highest field goal rate defending isolation
Anthony Edwards can take advantage of the Kings giving up a 46.3% field goal rate, as he’s scoring 4.1 points per game and he’s attempting almost four shots per game in isolation alone. This matchup between the Wolves and the Kings has the highest total on the slate and we need to remember that D’Angelo Russell is not on the Minnesota side. When you take him and Karl-Anthony Towns off the floor, Edwards is sporting a 33.6% usage rate and 1.36 points per minute. He also has an assist rate of 21.1% so he’s the hub of the Minnesota offense and playing against the Kings has just been a fantasy goldmine through so much of the season.
