Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 5/6)
MLB Dream
There are only six games on Tuesday’s NBA DFS slate, but there are some fun matchups and we have a vital late-night hammer in the Western Conference between the New Orleans Pelicans and Golden State Warriors. This should be a competitive slate so let’s discuss who’s helping us get to the top of the leaderboards.
1. The Thunder are dead last in rebounds allowed per game
That is likely to mean good things for Nick Richards of the Charlotte Hornets, who are going to rotate their centers the rest of the way. That means Mark Williams is sitting out and Richards and Kai Jones will man the position, and Richards is far too cheap on FanDuel and DraftKings alike. The FTN Advanced DvP Tool shows us that Oklahoma City has struggled with rebounders all year, and we know that Richards will not be coming off the bench for Tuesday –
In the scenario that Charlotte is in, Richards is scoring 1.05 points per minute while the Thunder are also 17th in points per game allowed in the paint. On DK especially, he feels like a plug-and-play option.
2. The Hornets and Thunder are both inside the top six in pace
This is going to be a game that will carry plenty of attention but it should. The Thunder are hanging onto the 10th spot in the West right now and this game should be one they can handle to keep things tight in the playoff race. Having said that, I would love to play Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Hornets are only 21st in points per game allowed in the paint and Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the league in drives per game. It doesn’t hurt that the DvP matchup is great for him as well –
The catch is he’s dealing with an ankle injury so there is a chance that he misses this game, but if he does there is an easy solution. We can just turn to Josh Giddey, who’s scoring 1.17 points per minute and we should feel great about the minutes he’ll play in this spot.
3. Ja Morant is likely going to sit out against the Magic
With Morant being listed as doubtful on his path back to a full-scale run in the lineup, that means we’re going to get the free square of the night in Tyus Jones. He’s back under $6,000 on both sites and he’s scoring 1.02 points per minute, along with the Orlando Magic ranking just 18th against dimers. The FTN Splits Tool always reminds us just how impactful the absence of Morant is for Jones as well –
Jones should always be over $6,000, and while he isn’t $3,100 as he was on the one slate, this is still one of the best values on the board for Tuesday.
4. Golden State is 15th in points per game allowed in the paint
If that wasn’t enough to entice you to play Jonas Valanciunas, the Warriors are also 25th against skilled centers in the past 15 games. Valanciunas was featured in this spot Monday and he was on the verge of a monster game, finishing at 39.3 DK points in just 30 minutes of game time and scoring just 10 real points. The Pelicans continue to run their starts for a ton of minutes and Valanciunas should be able to pick on the undersized Warriors on the interior. He’s scoring 1.23 points per minute and Golden State is just 23rd in rebounds allowed per game and 28th against rebounders. The salary for Valanciunas also went down just a bit, adding to the appeal.
5. New Orleans is allowing the sixth-highest frequency from a 3-point distance
Normally I would be turning to Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson in this spot, and they are both perfectly fine plays. The player that I’m looking at (for better or worse) is Jordan Poole. Now, there is no denying that Poole has had a rough season. He hasn’t taken the step forward that anyone expected but now he’s under $6,000 on DK. While I’m not touching him on FD, the salary on DK allows him to achieve a ceiling and in the past two games, Poole has scored 33 and 27 real points, helping lead him to play 31 and 32 minutes in each game. Poole could utterly sink you as he’s scoring 1.06 points per minute but can disappear from games. New Orleans is also just 14th against scorers in the past 15 games and with teams focusing on Curry and Thompson, Poole is sneaky and doesn’t need much to get his confidence going.
