Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Friday brings a bit of an odd NBA DFS slate — it’s a larger one (10 games), but there are really only three games in that two playoff teams face each other. All three of those games are later on and feature four teams in the Western Conference that are fighting to get into the field and for seeding. Let’s dig in and see which five players are going to help us the most Friday.
1. Deni Avdija played 32 minutes Wednesday
That was with the Wizards getting blown out by the Denver Nuggets in the second half so we should expect even more on Friday when Washington faces the Spurs. This game has the highest Stack Rating in the FTN Game Environment Tool and on top of that, the splits are promising for Avdija in the FTN Splits Tool as well –
Now, this is only a two-game sample, but he’s scoring 0.95 points per minute and he does some of everything, totaling eight rebounds and six assists Wednesday. It’s too strong of an environment to pass up and if you don’t want to spend a ton of salary, Avdija is a perfect fit.
2. Chris Boucher is under $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel
Now, we would need to confirm that Scottie Barnes, Precious Achuiwa and Gary Trent are all out for the Raptors as they were Wednesday, but those three players all missed practice Thursday. That opens up Boucher to play another 25-28 minutes since he leads the team in minutes with those three off the court, and he’s scoring 0.96 points per minute. The FTN Advanced DvP Tool shows us that the Detroit Pistons are only 29th against rebounders. Boucher didn’t break the slate on Wednesday but the salary didn’t come up enough to reflect the ceiling that he carries in this spot.
3. The Suns are allowing 54.7 points per game in the paint in the past three games
That trend is close to coinciding with the loss of Deandre Ayton to a hip injury, and it likely would be even higher if the Lakers had called any plays for Anthony Davis in the first half of the game on Wednesday when they played the Suns. The Sacramento Kings will not replicate that mistake because Domantas Sabonis is one of the two main cogs that their offense revolves around and even at an elevated salary, this is an unreal spot for him. Sabonis is averaging nearly 60.0 DK points over his past six games and scores 1.35 points per minute. Phoenix is only 15th against skilled centers as it is so we will want to get some exposure to Sabonis here. He could be a very intriguing pivot if Joel Embiid winds up being chalky on this slate.
4. Shaedon Sharpe played 40 minutes Wednesday
He was moved into the starting lineup and certainly took advantage of the opportunity, scoring 24 real points and grabbing nine rebounds. The salary flew up accordingly and typically when you have a young and exciting player like Sharpe have a blow-up game, the fantasy community is ready to pounce. I would expect him to be chalky tonight and the minutes are certainly appealing, but he could get to the point where a fade should be considered on such a large slate. If he’s leading the slate in popularity, there is no guarantee that he can flirt with 50.0 DK points again. Will Damian Lillard only take 19 shots again? Will Sharpe produce 1.24 points per minute, compared to his 0.87 points per minute in this scenario on the season? It could be a lot to ask, especially considering he’s facing a much tougher defense (Chicago is fifth in defensive rating). He’s going to project very well on both sites, but I’m going to be willing to be under the field if circumstances dictate. If Lillard winds up sitting out, I would be more willing to eat the chalk.
5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on track to play his first back-to-back since February
He’s not inexpensive and it’s not confirmed that he’s playing against the Lakers on Friday, but it’s hard not to expect it. The Thunder didn’t have to travel and he only played 27 minutes Thursday (while scoring 47.0 DK points) and the DvP matchup looks great –
He’s scoring 1.40 points per minute and has a 32.7% usage rate and even with Anthony Davis manning the paint through a large chunk of the season, the Lakers are 23rd in points per game allowed in the paint. This game is wildly important in the West and the Thunder should put their best foot forward while Gilgeous-Alexander can pick on D’Angelo Russell and others all night on the perimeter.
