Week 14 DVOA NFL Picks
Aaron Schatz
Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This NBA DFS article will appear every day, Monday through Friday, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying core plays.
The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.
Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!
Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.
Jrue Holiday, PG, Milwaukee Bucks (vs. WAS)
In three games without Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo this season, Jrue Holiday has averaged 27.67 points, 10.67 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game, per FTNDaily’s On/Off splits tool
He’s posted an absurd 35.6% usage rate over that span while attempting over 26 shots per game, providing a level of volume that you get with players that are priced $3,000 more than Holiday is on this slate ($8,000). The Wizards rank 27th against primary ball-handlers and 20th against scorers this season, per aDvP, creating an elite game environment at home for the two-way star to thrive in.
Jaren Jackson, PF/C, Memphis Grizzlies (vs. IND)
With both Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks off the floor this season, Jaren Jackson leads the Grizzlies with a 32.5% usage rate
He’s averaged 1.3 DraftKings points per minute over this span and 25.94 points, 7.23 rebounds and 2.94 assists per 36 minutes. With both Brandon Clarke and Killian Tille also out, there’s a higher likelihood that we actually see 30-plus minutes of Jackson barring foul trouble. While that may be a big ask, the Pacers don’t impose fear in terms of offensively gifted bigs that endanger the upside of Jackson, especially with Isaiah Jackson ruled out and Goga Bitadze potentially out as well. This is as attractive as a spot as you can get and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Jackson end up as the best per-dollar play in this price range en route to yelling “he can’t guard me,” as our own Stefano Vaccarino says.
Zach LaVine, SG, Chicago Bulls (@ NOP)
With both Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan off the floor this season, Zach LaVine has posted a 34.3% usage rate and 26.8% assists rate
LaVine has operated as the No. 2 option in this offense with DeMar DeRozan experiencing a career year and is priced as such ($7,700) on DraftKings. With DeRozan ruled out and Lonzo Ball still absent, this is one of the biggest bargains on the slate. LaVine sees his rates inflate astronomically (as noted above) and has averaged 29.11 points, 5.96 assists and 5.52 rebounds per 36 minutes, good for an average of 47.98 DraftKings points. The Pelicans have been a surprisingly decent team this season after a slow start and with DeRozan out, they should be able to keep this competitive throughout, giving LaVine a massive ceiling relative to his price.
Rui Hachimura, PF, Washington Wizards (@ MIL)
In three games without Kyle Kuzma this season, Rui Hachimura has averaged 25.14% more DraftKings points per game