NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This NBA DFS article will appear every day, Monday through Friday, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying core plays.
The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.
Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!
Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.
Lance Stephenson, PG/SF, Indiana Pacers (vs. SAC)
With both Tyrese Haliburton and Malcolm Brogdon off the court this season, Lance Stephenson has posted a 23.9% usage rate and 1.13 DraftKings points per minute
Stephenson has been an elite per-minute producer in his limited time this season and has already rewarded players for using him in games where he’s started, with Wednesday presenting another potential opportunity. He’s added a 34.9% assist rate and has averaged 19.04 points, 8.41 assists and 6.18 rebounds per 36 minutes in this scenario. With Brogdon already ruled out, Stephenson will become a core value piece if Haliburton is also ruled out given the exploitable matchup at hand.
Spencer Dinwiddie, PG/SG, Dallas Mavericks (vs. HOU)
In 157.5 minutes with Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway off the floor this season, Spencer Dinwiddie has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute
Dinwiddie has been nothing short of great on the offensive end since joining the Mavs, and the way he’s stepped up when needed has been a massive part of that success. He’s posted a 33.9% usage rate and a 29.8% assist rate in this scenario this season and draws one of the most favorable matchups on the entire slate. Many will likely choose between Dinwiddie and fellow backcourt mate Jalen Brunson. The latter has averaged a 30.4% usage rate and 1.16 DKP/min in this scenario, so if picking one, Dinwiddie is the preference. With that said, my favorite strategy on this slate is deploying both together.
Davion Mitchell, PG/SG, Sacramento Kings (@ IND)
Last game with both De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis out, Davion Mitchell logged 94 touches, a higher number than everyone in the NBA besides Nikola Jokic averages per game
Mitchell saw a whopping 46 minutes last game in the overtime loss to the Suns, leading the Kings while scoring 28 points on 22 shots. He added an additional nine assists, a trio of boards and a steal for good measure, putting together his most well-rounded effort of the season. With both Kings stars sitting Wednesday, Mitchell is primed for another ceiling game against one of the worst defensive units in basketball. $5,200 is arguably $1,000 too cheap given his current role as the primary ball-handler and scorer for the Kings.
Jonathan Kuminga, PF, Golden State Warriors (@ MIA)
In five games without Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson this season, Jonathan Kuminga has posted a 25.44% usage rate
The Warriors have ruled out the farm, as Curry, Thompson, Green and Otto Porter are all expected to sit Wednesday against the No. 1-seeded Miami Heat. This should lead to another start for the rookie forward and a heap of voided opportunities. Kuminga has averaged 8.81 more DraftKings points per game (up to 24.25) in this scenario in 25.23 minutes, but with Porter ruled out as well, as should see Kuminga approach the 30-minute mark. If this game gets out of hand, Kuminga is one of the players rather immune to the game script, making him one of my favorite value pieces on the entire slate.
Russell Westbrook, PG, Los Angeles Lakers (vs. PHI)
Russell Westbrook has averaged 66.5 DraftKings points per game across two games without LeBron James and Anthony Davis this season
If you know me, you know my disdain for Westbrook as a basketball player. So I don’t have to like it, but at $8,800 on DraftKings with two superstars out, it’s hard to ignore. In the two previous games without the superstars, Westbrook has averaged 43.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game while posting nearly a 31% usage rate. This isn’t a great matchup and has the potential to get very ugly, very quickly, but with so much risk baked into his price, this is a slate where I will be going back to the Westbrook well for one of the few times this season.
