Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s a sprawling NBA DFS slate Wednesday, since we have 10 games. But there does seem to be a distinction between game environments — some of these games have pretty unappealing totals while others are sky-high, which is a factor when deciding between players. Let’s get into it and figure out five players who could help us the most on this slate.
1. Michael Porter scores 6.5 points per game as a spot-up shooter, most in the league
The Nuggets are in Washington to take on the Wizards, and they’re allowing the sixth-most points per possession against spot-up shooters, a great start for Porter. The Wizards are also ninth in field goal rate allowed from a 3-point distance and that’s another check mark for Porter, since he’s firing 7.1 attempts per game and hitting them at a 41.5% rate. The minutes can sometimes be confusing so he’s nothing more than a GPP play but he’s also scored at least 39.25 DK points in two of the past four games. With Jamal Murray not playing his best currently, Porter becomes more important to his offense and still has an upside to reach above 6x value at this salary.
2. The Heat allow the fewest points per game to the ball handler in the pick-and-roll
That doesn’t sound like it’s a good reason to play Jalen Brunson, as he’s seventh in points per game as the ball handler (9.4 points per game). However, this is why stats can only take you so far and you typically want a larger context than just a single issue, because Miami has faced that play type at the lowest frequency in the NBA. Brunson is the ball handler at the sixth-highest frequency in the league and when the Heat do face this play, they allow the ninth-highest field goal rate. Brunson is going to challenge that aspect of their defense and he’s already at 1.14 points per minute. For some reason, DK lowered his salary again to just $7,300 and regardless of the opponent, that is too low.
3. Since the trade to the Raptors, Jakob Poeltl is seventh in paint touches per game
That would be bad news for Indiana since they’re 21st in points per game allowed in the paint (Poeltl is 10th in points scored at 9.1 per game) and he’s also averaging 16.2 rebound chances per contest. This is a fantastic spot for Poeltl since the Pacers are 27th in rebounds allowed and they are just 26th against rebounders on the season. We’ve attacked the Pacers with any big man of even the slightest talent level all year and that trend isn’t going to stop on Wednesday. When he’s played 30 minutes or more, Poeltl has been a massive fantasy asset and has scored 1.27 points per minute so far with Toronto, well worth the play at his salary.
4. Damian Lillard is scoring 1.96 points per minute without Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons
I would expect Lillard is going to be chalky, even in the scope of a 10-game slate. The only two starters left in the Portland lineup tonight from the start of the season are Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic, as Grant and Simons are out and Josh Hart was traded to New York. If that wasn’t enough, the salary on both sites is too low for the potential outcome, and with the matchup at hand from the FTN Advanced DvP Tool –
Utah is allowing the seventh-most points per game to the ball handler in the pick-and-roll while Lillard leads the NBA in points per game at 12.5. The Blazers are likely to close up shop and take Lillard off the court for the season within the next few days, so it might be Dame Time for the last time and maybe he’ll score 60 real points like the last time he saw Utah in late January.
5. Bismack Biyombo played for 20 minutes Sunday without Deandre Ayton
That may not seem like anything special, but Jock Landale only played 14 minutes as the Suns went with a smaller lineup through some parts of the game against the Thunder. They face the Lakers tonight so going small isn’t likely to work against Anthony Davis. If they leave Biyombo or Landale off the floor for long, they have zip as far as any type of rim protection and the Lakers are 28th against rebounders on the season. Biyombo started the game Sunday and has scored 0.99 points per minute while Los Angeles is also 23rd in points per game allowed in the paint. This isn’t a terrible spot for him at all and the cost of $3,700 is worth some risk in this spot. If you want to have some flexibility in the latest game on the slate, you can start with the more expensive center (on DK it’s Landale but on FD it’s Biyombo) to give yourself wiggle room to react to the starting lineup.
