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Chris Meaney
Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This NBA DFS article will appear every day, Monday through Friday, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying core plays.
The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.
Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!
Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.
Jordan Poole, PG/SG, Golden State Warriors (@ ORL)
Over the course of six games without Stephen Curry this season, Jordan Poole has averaged 25.67 points with a 29.07% usage rate
We’ve continued to target Poole in games with Curry out and despite the price hike to $7,400, I intend to do the same against the Magic on Tuesday. Poole has averaged nearly 19 shots per game without Curry this season and has taken at least 20 in back-to-back games, showing the presence of Klay Thompson hasn’t slowed down his volume. Poole led the Warriors in touches last game without Curry (82.0), which was a massive uptick from his season average of 59.5 touches per game. Assuming he maintains his role sans Curry, the exploitable Orlando defense stands very little chance at slowing down one of the hottest players in the NBA.
Jrue Holiday, PG/SG, Milwaukee Bucks (vs. CHI)
In nine games without Khris Middleton this season, Jrue Holiday has posted a 29.86% usage rate
Context is important here, as three of those nine games also saw Giannis Antetokounmpo out, a scenario in which Holiday posted a 35.6% usage rate, but he’s still clearly been far more involved even with just Middleton out. He’s averaged just under 20 points per game with Middleton out, attempting nearly four more shots per game (18.22 FGA per game) while averaging half of an assist more (7.22). Getting more granular, Holiday has posted a 27.9% assist rate and 1.09 DraftKings points per minute with Middleton off the court and Antetokounmpo ON the court this season, providing a nice floor assuming he plays the majority of his minutes alongside the two-time MVP. Against a vulnerable Chicago backcourt, Holiday has an astronomical upside on both ends of the court in what should be a competitive game for four quarters.
RJ Barrett, PG/SF, New York Knicks
RJ Barrett has posted a 34.39% usage rate in two games without Julius Randle this season
Barrett has had one of the best second halves in basketball this season and should get a massive boost across the board Tuesday with Julius Randle having already been ruled out against the rival Atlanta Hawks. While Randle has only missed two games this season, Barrett has made the most of the opportunity. With his 34.39% usage rate, he’s averaged 22.5 points per game on 17 field-goal attempts per game in those two games, but these are numbers we should see creep even higher given his form. Since the All-Star Break, Barrett has averaged 68.8 touches per game and 25.9 points per game. With Randle still leading the team in touches over that span (75.1), we should see Barrett eclipse the 80-touch mark en route to a very productive outing against a beatable perimeter defense.
Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets (vs. LAC)
In three games against the Clippers’ frontcourt this season, Nikola Jokic has averaged 32.0 points, 16.3 rebounds and 87 assists per game
It always feels like a bit of a cop-out to write up the best player on the slate, but Jokic’s track record against the Clippers this season is impressive even by his high standards. He posted a 26-22-8 stat line against them in their first meeting on December 26th while most recently posting one of his best stat lines of the year, notching a 49-14-10 line with three steals and a block on January 19th. The Clippers rank 22nd or worse against five of Jokic’s six archetypes per advanced DvP (illustrated above) and comes in, once again, in his own tier as the top spend-up with only Giannis Antetokounmpo capable of rivaling anything close to his upside.
Obi Toppin, PF, New York Knicks (vs. ATL)
In two games without Julius Randle this season, Obi Toppin has averaged 99.07% more DraftKings points per game than in games with Randle active
Yes, you read that right. Toppin literally doubles his statistical production from a DFS standpoint in games where he starts in place of Randle. It makes sense, as he goes from roughly 15 minutes per game to averaging over 36 per game without Randle, but the uptick is remarkable regardless. He’s averaged 27.88 DraftKings points per game across these two games, averaging 12.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. Matching up with Danilo Gallinari at the four will afford Toppin a lot of flexibility to produce on both ends of the court, making him the easy chalk value to eat at $3,200.
