Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Monday NBA slate is going to be a fun one. Of the six games, the lowest total is 225 points. There are multiple games with totals well over 230 points, and most of the games are a close spread.
Let’s dig into five players that we want in our lineups for this slate!
1. Nick Richards is averaging 15 rebound chances per game since Mark Williams was injured
If you told me you wanted to stack the Pacers facing the Hornets on this slate, I wouldn’t think you were crazy. These teams both play at a fast pace (in the top 10) and defense is optional (bottom 10 in defensive rating). When we look at Nick Richards in the past two games, he’s only played 36 total minutes because of foul trouble. I don’t believe that’s a big issue for him, though, since one game was against Cleveland and it was a blowout. His last game was against Joel Embiid. It’s encouraging he’s averaging so many rebound chances even in reduced minutes. Indiana is 27th in rebounds allowed, and Richards is super affordable on both sites tonight with a ceiling outcome that doesn’t match the salary (1.01 points per minute).
2. Jalen Brunson is $7,500 on DK
I may not have the same interest level on FD since he is full price but on DK, but this salary is quite the discount. Jalen Brunson played just under 32 minutes in his first game back from his foot injury, and I would expect that to rise by 3-5 minutes in this game. Even with a couple of minutes shaved off, Brunson took 20 shots on Saturday, and the Wolves are 14th against primary ball-handlers this season, according to the FTN Advanced DvP Tool. That has fallen to 29th in the past 15 games, while Brunson has scored the seventh-most points per game as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll. Minnesota is allowing the ninth-most points per game, and this salary can be exploited considering Brunson hasn’t been under $8,000 on DK since January 31.
3. The Rockets are allowing the highest 3-point frequency in the league
Yes, the Warriors are favored by 11 points over the Rockets right now, but if they manage to run Houston out of the gym, I would expect Stephen Curry to be the reason why. If Jalen Brunson isn’t the most mispriced guard, Curry would be the next choice because DK has him under $10,000. If that wasn’t enough, the DvP matchup couldn’t have more green numbers on it, and Curry is shooting 43.5% from beyond the arc. I would expect he has a very strong bounce-back game tonight against the Rockets. I have a small concern about the wrist injury that popped up leading into the Hawks game on Friday (he has shot just 17-for-42) but I can’t resist Curry in this matchup under five digits for his salary on DK.
4. Domantas Sabonis is seventh in points per game in the paint
He’s been on a tear in his last six games, as he’s averaging over 58 DK points with three triple-doubles in the span. Utah is only 16th in rebounds per game allowed and just 26th in points per game allowed in the paint. Sure, Walker Kessler is likely to have a block or two on Domantas Sabonis, but he’s not going to be able to fully contain him. If Kevin Huerter remains out, Sabonis is up to 1.39 points per minute. Even with the presence of Kessler, the Jazz are also allowing the fourth-most points per game to post-up shots, and Sabonis is scoring almost three points per game in that play type. He’s a very strong option as the late-night hammer for this slate.
5. The Jazz are missing Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson
In that scenario, Talen Horton-Tucker is second on the team in minutes at 143 and is scoring 1.27 points per minute. The usage rate isn’t going to get much higher than 29.3%, while the assist rate of 31.4% helps raise his floor at the salary. We know that the Kings are in the bottom 10 in defensive rating, but the Jazz are 25th as well, while both teams are in the top 12 in pace. Sacramento is only 16th against primary ball-handlers, and even though the salary might seem expensive, this is the epitome of March basketball in the NBA. I’m sure he’s going to be popular, but I will be a part of that popularity on this slate.
