Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This article will come every day, Monday through Friday, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying core NBA DFS plays.
The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.
Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!
Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.
James Harden, PG/SG, Philadelphia 76ers (vs NYK)
When sharing the court with Joel Embiid (52.8 minutes), Harden has posted a 54.8% assist rate
The offense clearly still flows through Joel Embiid when the two superstars share the court, as evidenced by Embiid’s 40.7% usage rate compared to Harden’s 17.4%, but the correlation between the two is as strong as ever. Harden has operated as the primary facilitator and playmaker with his 54.8% assist rate, converting this into 28 total assists in his first two games with the Sixers. Seeing that they’ve only shared the court for 52.8 minutes together, Doc Rivers has clearly shown the willingness to stagger minutes, which is another advantage to Harden on tonight’s slate. Despite still averaging over 1.7 DK points per minute with Embiid on the court, that already-elite number balloons to 2.06 DK points per minute with a 35.7% usage rate when Embiid is off the floor. At what should be lower-than-deserving ownership, Harden is a preferred spend-up for me in a matchup with a disappointing defensive unit.
Jarrett Allen, C, Cleveland Cavaliers (vs. CHA)
No team in the NBA is allowing more rebounds per game (57.0) than the Charlotte Hornets
It’s no surprise the Hornets have gotten brutalized on the glass this season, as this has been a theme for the last two or three seasons. They’ve somehow managed to be even worse as of late, too. Over their last three games, they’ve allowed 60.3 rebounds per game and allowed a whopping 72 rebounds last game to the Bucks. Allen is the perfect style of center to take advantage of this deficiency, having logged 28 total rebounds over his last two games against the Hornets and ranking eighth in the NBA in rebounding chances per game (18.4). With so much attention on Deandre Ayton and Nikola Jokic tonight, Allen could go overlooked in the best center matchup on the slate.
Cameron Payne, PG, Phoenix Suns (vs. POR)
In 298.6 minutes with both Chris Paul and Devin Booker off the floor this season, Cameron Payne leads the Suns with a 29.5% usage rate
Payne is listed as probable ahead of Wednesday’s game with the Blazers, which would mark his first game active since Jan. 22. While this is cause for some concern with the potential of a minutes limit, his $4,300 price tag mitigates a lot of the downside. In the time without Booker and Paul on the court this season, Payne has averaged 1.15 DK points per minute while adding a 33.1% assist rate. If you think he sees only 24-26 minutes, that still equates to over 25 DK points at his current rate, more than 6x his salary. Despite what should be heavy ownership, Payne is chalk worth eating in a great matchup, especially if Aaron Holiday sits out again.
Darius Garland, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers (vs. CHA)
With Caris LeVert and Rajon Rondo off the floor this season, Darius Garland has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute
Garland is still technically listed as questionable as he continues to nurse some back pain, but going through morning shootaround is as good a sign as any when looking for an indication of his status. After missing some time, Garland’s price has plummeted ($7,700) on DraftKings, making him a screaming value if he’s active with both Rondo and LeVert sidelined. He’s posted a 29.5% usage rate with them off the floor, accompanied by a 44.0% assist rate and elite per-minute production. In a massive pace-up spot with a rapidly increasing total, Garland is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate and pairing him with Allen is how I plan to get different in tournaments.
Jaxson Hayes, PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans (vs. SAC)
Jaxson Hayes is averaging 18.1 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per-36-minutes this season
Hayes has been a spark plug for this Pelicans offense since moving into the starting lineup, averaging 14.1 points and 7.6 rebounds in 28.6 minutes per game as a starter this season (seven games). While the floor is still low, a sub-$5,000 price tag against a porous Kings’ defense should mitigate a lot of Hayes’ downside, especially if he starts. The Kings rank 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (53.8) and have allowed the most field goals per game (20.4) within six feet of the basket. This matchup is picture-perfect for the young big man, making him a great value option with dual-position eligibility.
