5 Stats to Know: NBA DFS March 18

Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This NBA DFS article will appear every day, Monday through Friday, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying core plays.

The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.

Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!

Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.

Jalen Smith, PF/C, Indiana Pacers (@ HOU)

Jalen Smith has logged the second-most minutes among all Pacers (219.8) with both Isaiah Jackson and Goga Bitadze off the floor

If you’re strictly counting frontcourt players, Smith has played the most (219.8 minutes) in this scenario, with Terry Taylor being the next closest at 190.0 minutes. He’s carried over his elite per-minute production, averaging 38.82 DraftKings points per 36 minutes in this scenario and could very well slide into the starting lineup if Bitadze is also ruled out, as Jackson has been placed in the concussion protocol. In a smash-matchup for big men, Smith could be one of the best values on the slate if the dominos fall correctly.

Jordan Clarkson, PG/SG, Utah Jazz (vs. LAC)

Jordan Clarkson leads the Jazz in usage rate (30.5%) across 854.7 minutes with Donovan Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic off the floor this season

It’s a tale as old as time. If Donovan Mitchell is out, Clarkson stands to see a massive bump in production. The difference here, however, is that both Mitchell and fellow volume-hog Bojan Bogdanovic have been ruled out. While Clarkson should still come off the bench, he’s posted a usage rate north of 30% with these two off the floor while averaging 1.04 DraftKings points per minute. Against a Clippers team that struggles against scorers (per advanced DvP), Clarkson has a sky-high ceiling relative to his sub-$6,000 price tag.

Tyler Herro, PG/SG, Miami Heat (vs. OKC)

Over his last 11 games, Tyler Herro has averaged 25.4 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game

Herro seemingly locked up the Sixth Man of the Year Award months ago, but that hasn’t stopped him from continuing to improve his play. He’s been the Heat’s best player this season and especially as of late, shooting over 50% from the field and 46.8% from three over his last 11 games. The projected gamescript against the Thunder (Miami is a 16-point favorite) could lead to additional minutes for Herro on the court without the trio of Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo, setting up another production outing for the third-year star.

Mike Conley, PG, Utah Jazz (vs. CHI)

Per FTNDaily’s on/off splits, Mike Conley has averaged 38.04% more DraftKings points per game in games without Bojan Bogdanovic versus games with Bogdanovic active

Both games have come in the last week, with Conley posting 30.75 and 48.5 DraftKings points in the two games, respectively. He managed to top 30 DK points two games ago despite shooting a woeful 2-14 from the field, but the fact that he’s averaged 13.5 FGAs per game in the absence of Bogdanovic shows just how much more involved he is offensively. The Bulls’ defense has been on a sharp decline over the last six weeks or so and with most of the attention on Donovan Mitchell, Conley should excel once again in another competitive matchup.

CJ McCollum, PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans (@ SAS)

Since March 6, only Trae Young (47.1%) and Nikola Jokic (44.4%) have posted higher assist rates than CJ McCollum (43.8%)

McCollum has stepped into the role as the primary ball-handler since coming over from Portland and there’s been an even larger emphasis on it in the absence of Brandon Ingram, who’s been out since March 6. He’s averaged the fifth-most assists per game (9.3) over this span with 16.7 potential assists per game, more than each of Jokic, LaMelo Ball and De’Aaron Fox. In an up-tempo game against the Spurs, McCollum is primed for another productive outing and has a great shot at the double-double bonus on DraftKings.