NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This NBA DFS article will appear every day, Monday through Friday, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying core plays.
The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.
Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!
Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.
Tre Mann, PG/SG, Oklahoma City Thunder (@ SAS)
In 243.8 minutes with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort off the court this season, Tre Mann leads the Thunder with a 28.1% usage rate
Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t been ruled out yet, as he’s deemed questionable with right ankle soreness, but with the direction the Thunder are heading, it would make sense to see him take a seat on Wednesday. In that potential scenario, Mann becomes a priority. Not only is it a fast-paced and favorable matchup against the Spurs, but he’s posted a 28.1% usage rate and 17.8% assist rate with the three aforementioned players off the floor. He should be looking at 35-plus minutes and if he can hover around 0.9-1.0 DraftKings points per minute (has averaged 0.90 per minute with these three off the floor), then he will have no problem returning value and then some.
Mitchell Robinson, C, New York Knicks (vs POR)
Since Jusuf Nurkic went down with an injury, the Blazers have averaged the sixth-least rebounds per game in the entire NBA (40.8) while allowing the third-most rebounds per game (48.75) to opponents
Robinson is in the midst of one of his best stretches of the season aside from his foul-plagued 22-minute outing last game, and he steps into a prime bounceback spot Wednesday. The Blazers have been the worst two-way team in the league since the trade deadline and they’ve been getting bullied around the rim, paving the way for Robinson to notch his sixth double-double over his last eight games. The advanced DvP appears deceptive, as this is a great spot to target a ceiling outcome for the young big man.
Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets (@ WAS)
In a similar vein, no team has logged fewer rebounds per game over the last month than the Washington Wizards (39.6) while allowing the highest field-goal percentage in the paint (non-restricted area) (53.1%)
It never takes twisting someone’s arm to get them to play Nikola Jokic, and this slate shouldn’t be any different. The only difference is the abundance of viable spend-ups on a 12-game slate. I’m here to remind you that none of them have the ceiling Jokic has, even Giannis Antetokounmpo. Jokic posted a gaudy 28-19-9-3-1 stat line in his last meeting against the Wizards this season (Dec. 13) and should be primed for similar production on Wednesday in the same meeting. Everything the Wizards struggle with defensively, Jokic excels at, as they are no better than 18th against five of his six player traits, per advanced DvP. If you’re spending all the way up, Jokic is your answer.
Mike Conley, PG, Utah Jazz (vs. CHI)
Per FTNDaily’s on/off splits, Mike Conley has averaged 38.04% more DraftKings points per game in games without Bojan Bogdanovic versus games with Bogdanovic active
Both games have come within the last week, with Conley posting 30.75 and 48.5 DraftKings points in the two games, respectively. He managed to top 30 DK points two games ago despite shooting a woeful 2-14 from the field, but the fact that he’s averaged 13.5 FGAs per game in the absence of Bogdanovic shows just how much more involved he is offensively. The Bulls’ defense has been on a sharp decline over the last six weeks or so and with most of the attention on Donovan Mitchell, Conley should excel once again in another competitive matchup.
Terry Rozier, PG/SG, Charlotte Hornets (vs. ATL)
Over his last nine games, Terry Rozier has averaged 25.7 points, 5.7 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game
The rostership from slate to slate continues to gravitate toward LaMelo Ball, so I will continue to prioritize the player that has showcased both a higher and more reliable ceiling over the last few weeks as long as he continues to come in less popular. Rozier has attempted at least 17 shots in six straight games and has shot under 50% from the field only once over his last five games, operating in arguably his best form of the entire season. The Hawks are a beatable matchup for Rozier, as they rank 24th against scorers and 25th against primary ball-handlers, per FTN’s advanced DvP.
