Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We’ve got split slates today for one of the few times of the season to this point, and there aren’t many injuries to deal with on the three-game slate that starts at 3:00 p.m. ET.
The same cannot be said for the six-game slate that’s later in the evening, so let’s get busy and see what we like.
1. Tyrese Maxey has played 37 minutes in each of the past two games (Early)
Despite that, Tyrese Maxey is still just $7,000 on DK and with Joel Embiid still out, and the minutes should be safe. He did just come back from a foot injury, but in this scenario Maxey has a 26.4% usage rate and the matchup is excellent against the Pistons. They are 29th in defensive rating and they also rank 25th against scorers on the season. Maxey is driving to the basket 11.4 times per game, and the Pistons have not defended the paint, ranking 27th in points allowed per game in the paint.
2. The Hornets/Pacers game has the highest total of the whole day (Early)
This would be one of the most appealing games regardless of which slate you play, and it’s easy to stack up a lot of pieces from this one on a three-game slate. Both of these teams are in the bottom 10 in defensive rating, the top eight in pace and both teams are in the bottom five against centers. I’m going to utilize the double-center approach on DK with both Mason Plumlee and Myles Turner, as Plumlee is scoring 1.20 points per minute and the Hornets are 27th against rebounders. The Pacers are 30th against rebounders and 23rd against skilled centers, so Turner has a great spot in front of him as well. Both of these centers are pretty affordable, and there is a strong chance I’d play 3-5 players from this game.
3. Desmond Bane scored 42.3 DK points in the last game (Main)
I really have no idea why his salary is still the same, as we’d been chasing that first big game and got it at 2%. Desmond Bane shot 8-for-16 from the field and grabbed 11 rebounds while only playing 26 minutes in a blowout. He should get closer to 30 minutes tonight and is scoring 1.15 points per minute with a 27.1% usage rate, although he won’t be 2% rostered tonight. There is a chance Ja Morant sits out, at which point he’d be super chalky but he’s just far too cheap. The Jazz are 19th against crafty finishers, 27th in defensive rating and the total of this game is the highest of the main slate.
4. Christian Wood is scoring 1.66 points per minute in his potential scenario (Main)
The Mavericks played last night, and they now face the Thunder tonight while Luka Doncic is questionable. The Thunder are favorites by 3.5 points, so I’m planning on Luka to sit, and they are also missing three of their depth players. Wood has played 120 minutes in the scenario that is present tonight and has scored 1.66 points per minute, which is near a Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid level of production. The 72.9% true shooting rate is fueling that higher than it should be, but Wood is still just $8,000 and the Thunder are 21st against skilled centers and 25th against rebounders, so it’s a phenomenal matchup.
5. D’Angelo Russell has a 28.1% usage rate when Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns are off the floor (Main)
Anthony Edwards is questionable, but he was doubtful to play as of Friday night, so I would be surprised if he suits up. D’Angelo Russell also has a 33.6% assist rate in 186 minutes without those two players, and the Rockets are a great matchup. They’re 28th in defensive rating but also 29th against primary ball handlers. Russell would have the ball in his hands an awful lot, and Edwards has been in isolation 18.8% of the time this year. If Russell takes on some of those opportunities, the Rockets are tied for the eighth-most points per possession allowed and the ceiling does not match the salary for Russell.
