Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
It’s an interesting five-game NBA DFS slate Tuesday with point totals and spreads all over the place. We have one game that carries a 244-point total and one that is as low as 211, while the highest total also carries the largest spread of 11 points. It’s going to make for a challenge, especially since the value options appear to be limited so let’s get to work.
1. The Heat allow the second-highest 3-point frequency at 43.4%
The game between the Heat and the Cavaliers is gross on the surface with that aforementioned total of 211 points (it opened at 209 as well). These teams are 28th and 30th in pace in addition to ranking in the top five in defensive rating, so it’s easy to see why the total is so low. That doesn’t mean there are good plays from that game, because Donovan Mitchell is only $8,600 on DraftKings and he’s sixth in 3-point attempts per game at 9.4. On top of that, he’s shooting 39.6% from deep and that’s the third-highest among the top 10 players in attempts. In addition to the Heat ranking in the bottom six in 3-point frequency and field goal rate allowed, they allow the ninth-highest field goal rate to the pick-and-roll ball handler. Mitchell is scoring the fifth-most points in that play type and his matchup looks far better than it might appear on the surface.
2. LeBron James needs just 117 points scored to break the all-time scoring record
I haven’t been playing James all that much at this salary, especially since Anthony Davis has returned from his foot injury. On the season, James is sporting a 33.6% usage rate and 1.49 points per minute but Tuesday, he faces an incredible matchup –
I’m not about to make a remark about his 3-point shooting on the season — the last time I did that, he hit nine of them for a new career high. While his season has not gone well from behind the arc at 31.2%, he’s shooting 43.2% over the past five games and the Knicks allow the fourth-highest frequency. I’m not one for narrative plays very often but James in Madison Square Garden this close to setting an NBA record seems like a good time to break my general rule and play some lineups with LeBron.
3. Kawhi Leonard is scoring the 16th-most points per game in isolation
Considering his bumpy road this year, that’s pretty impressive and of the 15 players ahead of him, only five are scoring more points per possession. His 1.15 points per possession are equal to Luka Doncic, who is leading the league in points scored in isolation per game while Leonard is scoring 1.22 points per minute. The Bulls are only allowing the second-fewest points per game in isolation but they are also facing the fifth-fewest field goal attempts. Kawhi is also shooting over 53.0% from mid-range (10-19 feet) this season and the Bulls may have a tough time stopping him from getting whatever he wants since they are 24th against primary ball handlers.
4. Brook Lopez is scoring 0.99 points per minute
As things stand, this slate is a little difficult because there are no strong value players that jump off the page. Sure, there are players like Joe Ingles from this very Bucks team and others that we can take a chance on, but it is going to be risky. That makes playing Giannis Antetnokounmpo a challenge, which is something we obviously want to do against the Hornets. Instead, we may have to look at players that are cheaper to get the exposure elsewhere and Lopez would be one of the players on the radar. The Hornets are only 28th against stretch bigs and 27th against rim protectors while the Bucks are missing Bobby Portis. Lopez is averaging a little over 30 minutes per game and the salary is very reasonable while Charlotte remains dead last against the center position.
5. Brandon Ingram is $7,600 on DK
When a player comes back from a long-term injury, there is typically a game or two where we can exploit the salary. It doesn’t come back up quickly enough and Ingram is in that spot in my eyes against the Nuggets. He should be able to clear 30 minutes and top out around 32 while he has a 30.2% usage rate without Zion Williamson on the floor. In the first two games back in the lineup, he’s taken a total of 40 shot attempts and his main competition for shots is on the sidelines. Denver is only 16th in defensive rating and this game has one of the highest totals of the night.
