Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We get a full NBA DFS slate on this Tuesday night, with seven games instead of the normal 3-4, but only three games have a total of 230 points or more. There are also quite a few questionable players at various start times so that will make for an interesting slate.
1. The Indiana Pacers are in the bottom five in fantasy points per game allowed to centers
I’m not totally in love with the salary for Nikola Vucevic, but he has shown he can score right about 50.0 DK points, just as he did Monday night. The Pacers are lightning-fast at the third-quickest pace in the league while they are also 28th against rebounders. Vucevic is 11th in rebound chances per game and he’s scoring the seventh-most points per game in the post-up game. That’s a good matchup for him as well since the Pacers allow the 10th-most points per possession in that play type and even at a slightly inflated salary, Vucevic scores 1.16 points per minute and I’m very interested.
2. The Knicks are allowing the fifth-most points per game to the ball handler in the pick-and-roll
That’s a nice matchup for Donovan Mitchell to come back into the Cavaliers lineup after he hasn’t played for the past eight days. Mitchell has scored the fifth-most points per game as the ball handler while shooting 50.8% from those attempts. Mitchell has been fantastic for the Cleveland team that traded for him in the offseason, sporting a 32.0% usage rate and 1.23 points per minute. The total in this game isn’t super high but the salary is still very affordable for a player of Mitchell’s caliber. Additionally, the FTN Advanced DvP tool highlights that the matchup is excellent on top of the play type offering him a clear path to a big fantasy score –
3. Jamal Murray is only $7,000 on DK
The Nuggets are in a curious spot. We know for sure they will be missing Michael Porter, and that already bumps up Murray to a 26.7% usage rate and 1.09 points per minute. The backup point guard, Bones Hyland, can’t seem to get off the bench for any extended minutes right now. We also have the status of Nikola Jokic in the air and the spread for this game is very tight, so he could miss his third straight contest. I’m interested in Murray regardless of Jokic (though he’s a larger priority if the big man sits) as the Pelicans are 12th against scorers and Murray is starting to regain his pre-injury form. He’s played almost 40 minutes a night when the game requires it and hasn’t dipped below 41.0 DK points in the past five. His price is more than fair if Jokic plays and it’s a significant bargain if he doesn’t so Murray is going to be a building block style of player for me Tuesday.
4. Cameron Johnson played 29 minutes on Saturday for the Suns
Tuesday night marks just the third game for Johnson as he’s returning from a knee injury that cost him more than two months. The Suns are welcoming him back with open arms as they are suffering from a lot of injuries right now and we should expect him to be around 30-32 against the Hornets, who are 27th in defensive rating and 10th in pace. Charlotte is also 27th against shooters and on the season, Johnson is shooting 39.3% from behind the 3-point line. That aspect of his game hasn’t come back yet as he’s just 2-of-10 in his two games back but that can’t last much longer and the salary is fantastic for this scenario and environment.
5. Ivica Zubac is sixth in rebound chances per game
It can be a little difficult to get Zubac right on any given night, especially when both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are active. He is only at 0.94 points per minute but he can hit the glass like few others in the league. The Lakers are 30th against rebounders, not to mention they are in the bottom six in points per game allowed in the paint and rebounds allowed per game. Zubac is not going to be a focal point of the offense but he’s 12th in points per game scored from putbacks while the Lakers are 28th in points per game allowed. There is a reason that they’re 28th against centers overall and Zubac should be able to zoom past this salary if he can play nearly 30 minutes Tuesday.
