Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
If you like late-night hammers, this slate should be up your alley. Five games tip off at 8:00 p.m. ET or later. They have four of the five smallest spreads and some of the top totals on the board.
It will be fascinating to see how the field approaches this slate, so let’s get after it.
1. The Bulls allow the 12th-highest field goal rate to the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll
The Hawks are rolling into Chicago, and Trae Young is fourth in frequency and third in points per game scored when he’s in this play type. He also draws a fabulous matchup via the FTN Advanced DvP Tool –
Young has had a tumultuous season to this point and has been repeatedly mentioned in trade whispers as far as the next disgruntled star to ask for a trade. He is scoring 1.31 points per minute and has a 33.0% usage rate, which truly aren’t bad numbers, but the fantasy results have been scattershot. Both teams are in the top 12 in pace, so this is a game where Young can get plenty of opportunities. It’s hard to ignore him when he’s only at $9,500 on DK.
2. Alperen Sengun has scored at least 54 DK points in his past three games
The salary has grown with the production, and he’s flirted with a triple-double in each game, recording at least six assists. Alperen Sengun is massively talented for his age and experience level, while he’s scoring 1.31 points per minute. Some may be shy about paying the salary if Rudy Gobert makes it back for the Minnesota squad tonight, but I won’t be one of them. They are still 27th against skilled centers, and Sengun qualifies in spades. The absence of Gobert for a handful of games this year didn’t tank the ranking too badly, and they’re also 25th against rebounders. It shines through in the rebounds they allow per game (24th), and Sengun is blossoming with more responsibility on the offensive end.
3. Walker Kessler is scoring 1.14 points per minute
We’ve highlighted this before utilizing the FTN Splits Tool, but the loss of Kelly Olynyk is a major boost across the board for Walker Kessler –
He’s coming off a horrible game, which has been the exception to the rule for him this season without Olynyk. I don’t believe that will be the case tonight since the Hornets are 30th against centers, 26th against rebounders and in the bottom 10 in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint. Kessler is still under $6,000, so he’s much easier to play than Sengun in some respects. He also averages over six paint touches and points in the paint per game and might end up as my favorite overall play at the position, at least on DK.
4. The Spurs allow the highest 3-point field goal rate at 39.8%
The next-closest team is the Minnesota Timberwolves (37.4%), so the Spurs are comfortably in the lead. While that should help Damian Lillard, it certainly helps Anfernee Simons as well. Not only does Simons have a 25.8% usage rate and 0.94 points per minute, but he also leads the team in minutes while shooting 37.4% from downtown. Simons is closing in on 10 attempts per game, so he’s a volume shooter, and the Spurs are also 26th against primary ball-handlers. I’m looking to get exposure to the Blazers from this route as opposed to Lillard because of the salary difference, and this Spurs team is dead last in defensive rating.
5. The Kings are 25th in defensive rating
The Memphis Grizzlies are ninth in offensive rating overall, and I want some type of exposure here. While everyone wants to play Ja Morant at all times, Desmond Bane is scoring 1.19 points per minute and has the second-highest usage rate on the team at 26.8%. He’s also scoring 6.5 points on pull-up shooting and shoots 42.1% from the 3-point line. Granted, the Kings are only 12th in field-goal rate allowed and third in frequency allowed, but Bane is one of the best sharpshooters in the game. He didn’t hit a 3-point shot in the past game and still went over 40 DK points. The Kings have been a source of valuable fantasy games all year, and that trend shouldn’t stop tonight.
