NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
We have an interesting NBA DFS task ahead of us Friday, with some chalky teams and some injuries that are game-changing in nature. When a team is missing a player who has at least a chance to win three straight MVP awards, it does tend to change the slate. This is going to be a fascinating challenge, so let’s get to some stats that will help build some lineups.
1. The Pacers are missing guard Tyrese Haliburton for the next couple of weeks
DraftKings was slow to adjust the pricing for some of the Pacers in this contest, and the Atlanta Hawks as the opponent means that both teams are in the top seven for pace. T.J. McConnell is going to be stone chalk and he probably deserves it, since he’s second in minutes and has 1.01 points per minute despite sporting a 49.8% true shooting rate. Atlanta allows the ninth-most points per game to the pick-and-roll ball handler and McConnell is seventh in frequency, so he’s going to have a ton of opportunity.
2. Stephen Curry is scoring 1.51 points per minute
He played over 31 minutes in his first game back in nearly a month Tuesday, so I would suspect that he has his normal workload. The Warriors are also only one game ahead of the 11th seed in the West, so the time is now for this team. After an awful loss to a G-League Suns team, they need this game and both teams are in the top 10 in pace. That’s going to help Curry maximize his 1.51 points per minute and 29.9% usage rate while the Spurs are 30th in both defensive rating and 3-point field goal rate allowed. Not only are they 30th, but they allow a 39.8% rate, and the team in 29th is at 36.9% so the Spurs are dead last by a lot. Curry hoisted 15 attempts from beyond the arc so the shoulder appears fine, and Curry has nuclear potential.
3. The Thunder are 25th against rebounders
Oklahoma City played last night and had to deal with Joel Embiid, and now they have Nikola Vucevic from the Bulls on deck. Vucevic should be without DeMar DeRozan again and he has a 22.1% usage rate and 1.38 points per minute. The Thunder are 25th against rebounders, and that includes 22nd in points per game allowed in the paint and dead last in rebounds allowed. Vucevic is scoring 3.6 points per game in the post-up game, shooting 55.0% and he’ll have more opportunity without DeRozan while the Thunder are 28th in points per game allowed. This is a glorious spot for Vucevic (and his teammate Zach LaVine, just as it was Wednesday).
4. Wendell Carter is still just $6,500
I’m not sure why his salary isn’t moving, but I’m not complaining at this point, I’ll just continue to play him. The Jazz are 29th against centers and 22nd against rebounders while Carter is at 1.07 points per minute and a 21.4% usage rate. He still might play a couple more minutes as he gets further away from his injury as well since he was more toward 34 before it happened. Utah is dead last in points allowed per game in the paint while Carter is at 6.1 points per game and he’s also averaging over 15.0 rebound chances. He is still very affordable for what he’s bringing to Orlando on both sides of the floor right now.
5. The Nuggets are without Nikola Jokic
The 2-time MVP is out, and the Nuggets are incredibly affordable, so we need one of them in the lineup this evening. Jamal Murray, Michael Porter and Bones Hyland are going to be the primary targets and, notably, Hyland leads the group with a 34.8% usage rate and 1.32 points per minute. He’s likely to take on a little more responsibility off the bench tonight since Murray and Porter will have to carry the starting unit to a much larger degree and the loss of Jokic is just so large on the offensive end of the floor. If you started lineups with two Pacers and two Nuggets, I don’t believe there is anything wrong with that.
