Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
For eight games on the schedule, the NBA slate is missing some star power tonight. Multiple teams are missing their best player, and we have some higher spreads to navigate with three games at nine points or higher.
Let’s get into some stats to help us pick our players to build around tonight.
1. The Spurs allow the fifth-most points per game in transition
I don’t believe that’s a big surprise since San Antonio is eighth in pace and dead last in defensive rating on the year. The Bulls are 13th and this matchup does carry a total of 238 points, while there is some risk in the 10-point spread in favor of Chicago. There is also a risk in playing Zach LaVine, but games with a high pace are where I tend to shoot for the ceiling outcome from him. He’s scoring 5.0 points per game in transition this season, while the Spurs are 30th against primary ball-handlers. LaVine is also shooting 37.9% from a 3-point distance on the year and 43.3% over the past five games. The Spurs are still the only team over 37.4% in field goal rate allowed from beyond the arc (40.3%), so there should be a big reward in LaVine tonight.
2. Jalen Green took 15 shots in 24 minutes on Saturday night
It was the first game in about 10 days for Jalen Green, but part of the reason he played so few minutes was the Rockets got hammered by the Thunder, 153-121. With Houston still missing Kevin Porter, Green walks into a 30.7% usage rate and 1.04 points per minute, while the Kings matchup is solid. They are just 18th against crafty finishers and 12th against primary ball-handlers, but the overall lack of defensive prowess in this game should help Green as well. Both of these teams are 22nd or lower in defensive rating, and while Green may not be the most efficient player, we don’t get extra fantasy points for efficiency.
3. The Mavericks have a 116.0 defensive rating without Dorian Finney-Smith
One of the aspects that haven’t gotten a ton of attention in the Kyrie Irving trade is just how bad the Dallas defense has been without Dorian Finney-Smith this year. The FTN Splits Tool shows that it drops a good bit, and the 116.0 mark would rank 27th in the league –
That has me looking at Lauri Markkanen from the Jazz, who could benefit the most from the loss of Finney-Smith. As it is, Dallas is just 17th against crafty finishers, and Markkanen is scoring 1.21 points per minute and has a 25.2% usage rate. Dallas also already allowed the seventh-most points per game against spot-up shooters, while Markkanen is tied for the second-most at 6.2 points per game.
4. The Thunder are 18th against primary ball-handlers
DK has had some slates where they have done a great job pricing the Warriors when Stephen Curry is out, but this one isn’t one of them. Jordan Poole is still only $6,200 and scores 1.12 points per minute, the highest on the team. Both teams are in the top three in pace, which is going to help maximize his 34.8% usage rate, and the assist rate jumps to 25.0%, trailing only Draymond Green in that category. On this particular slate, there may not be many players in this price range who have the upside that Poole does since he averages almost eight full real points per game more without Curry.
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo is at 1.75 points per minute without Bobby Portis
Bobby Portis is still out and Giannis Antetokounmpo is the major-sized late-night hammer against the Blazers. Not that any matchup can stop Giannis, but the Blazers are 23rd against point forwards, while the Nets and Mavericks are going to offer us a ton of value options to help afford his salary. I’m always a little more interested in a superstar like Giannis when the slate lacks other options who possess his true ceiling (with due respect to Jayson Tatum, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and others). This game also has the highest total on the slate, and the Blazers are just 22nd against superstars.
