Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
This is a fun eight-game NBA DFS slate for a Friday night, and six of the eight games have a spread of under eight points. There are also four games with a total of over 235 points so the options are going to be plentiful, not to mention there are only four players above $10,000 on DK. Let’s talk about five stats that should help us get ready for the slate.
1. Damian Lillard has scored 42.2 real points over the past five games
To say that it’s been Dame Time lately is an understatement, as he’s been white-hot. He’s shooting 46.7% from a 3-point distance over the past five games and is also sixth in points scored in isolation this year. While Washington has held their opponents to a 43.0% field goal rate, they have faced the seventh-most field goal attempts per game. While Lillard is a strong play regardless, the Blazers are without Jusuf Nurkic, Lillard is averaging 1.46 points per minute in 201 minutes this year on top of his great matchup from the FTN Advanced DvP Tool.
2. Domantas Sabonis is back in Indiana to face the Pacers
That’s not a stat in and of itself, but the Kings face the Pacers Friday, and Sacramento will be without De’Aaron Fox. When he’s off the floor, Sabonis sees an increase of 1.6% in his usage rate and he’s scoring 1.36 points per minute while the Pacers are 28th in rebounds allowed and 19th in points per game allowed in the paint. Sabonis is leading the league in rebound chances per game (21.6) and is ninth in points scored per game in the paint (8.0). Both of these teams are in the bottom 10 in defensive rating and top eight in pace so Sabonis is a leading candidate to be in the majority of my lineups.
3. The Hornets and Pistons game has a 240-point total
We’re going to want to get some exposure to that, and one of the ways I’m considering that is Bojan Bogdanovic. He leads the Pistons in usage rate at 25.7% and is scoring 1.00 points per minute while he’s also second in points per game from attempts off screens. The Hornets are allowing the third-most points per game in that play type and are 25th against scorers. On top of that, Charlotte is allowing the eighth-highest field goal rate from a 3-point distance and Bogdanovic is shooting 41.6% from downtown. We are close to the trade deadline but Detroit has been playing him for over 35 minutes in recent games and the salary is affordable for a game that features two top-12 teams in pace and the bottom four in defensive rating.
4. Fred VanVleet is under $8,500
The Raptors are in Houston, and they are still without OG Anunoby, which has benefited VanVleet in a big way. He was known as FVTD (Fred VanTripleDouble) in the Discord after Wednesday when he flirted with 75.0 DK points. The salary has barely moved and while he surely won’t record another triple-double, he’s up to 1.22 points per minute without Anunoby and the Rockets are 28th against primary ball handlers. Furthermore, Houston allows the highest frequency of 3-point attempts in basketball at 44.2%. We always want to attack the Rockets, and VanVleet is a good way to do it.
5. Lauri Markkanen is scoring 2.4 points per game as the roll man in the pick-and-roll
That’s not an overwhelming amount of points, but it should be noted that Hawks are dead last in points per game allowed and points per possession. Markkanen is also under $8,500 and that’s a discount considering he was closing in on $10,000 just a few days ago. This game has the highest total on the slate and the spread is under three points while the Hawks are 29th against scorers. Markkanen has been tearing it up as a spot-up shooter with the second-most points per game and an effective field goal rate of 68.6%. Lastly, Atlanta allows the ninth-most points in the transition while Markkanen is scoring 4.5 points per game.
