Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There are 10 games in the NBA Tuesday, and only one has a total of under 230 points, which feels notable. There are some very strong DFS environments all over the board, but we also have to be aware that four of the 10 games have a spread of at least nine points. There are a lot of choices to sift through, but let’s narrow down five of them for Tuesday’s lineups.
1. The Memphis Grizzlies allow the 11th-most points per game to the roll man
The Lakers are in Memphis, and they’ll be without LeBron James for the foreseeable future, while D’Angelo Russell is doubtful for Tuesday. That means if they have any chance to stick in this game, Anthony Davis is going to have to dominate. He’s scoring 1.55 points per minute without James, but the matchup is a mixed bag. If the Lakers run a lot of pick-and-roll, Davis can exploit that because he’s second in points per game as the roll man and he’s first in points per game in the paint. However, Memphis allows the lowest field goal rate within five feet of the basket. There is risk involved for multiple reasons with Davis, but the salary is calling my name and the Lakers need wins like they need air.
2. Deni Avdija is averaging over 30.0 DK points per game with Kristaps Porzingis out
The big man is doubtful for the Wizards against the Hawks, so Avdija should likely draw a start. That was the same scenario Sunday when Avdija was terrible for fantasy, but the proof is in the pudding on the season that Porzingis missing games have been a boost for Avdija –
The usage rate jumps up 1.3% to 17.8% and he’s scoring 0.97 points per minute while he should log over 30 minutes on the floor. Atlanta is eighth in pace on the season and the salary is still very affordable for what Avdija has shown when given more opportunity.
3. Isaiah Joe is shooting 45.3% from a 3-point range
This is a repeat of the matchup Sunday between the Thunder and the Kings while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still out. There are two ways to look at Joe and the first is he had under 5.0 DK points at the half on Sunday. Joe played horribly and wasn’t on the floor to start the second half, he had played so badly. However, he ended at 29.5 DK points which means he was lights out in the second half, scoring over 25.0 DK points in the third and fourth quarters in roughly 15 minutes of playing time. He’s scoring 1.08 points per minute while the Kings are allowing the second-highest field goal rate from downtown at 37.4%. The ceiling is just far too high for $4,400 on DK because he could go for 10x this salary, and I’m in once again. After all, both teams are in the top 10 in pace and Sacramento is down to 25th in defensive rating.
4. The Jazz are missing Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson
I’ve got to give credit to our Alex Blickle, because in the last game for the Jazz, he talked about Kris Dunn being a strong GPP play and Dunn went on to score 40.3 DK points. The rest of the field likely has caught up because the Jazz are now missing Clarkson and Dunn is likely going to have to play more than his 23 minutes from Saturday night. Sure, he’s not going to continue to score 1.38 points per minute (the sample is 24 minutes, so a large grain of salt is required) but the Jazz are just too thin for Dunn to not play big minutes. It’s that time of the season for the NBA and I’m ready to play plenty of Kris Dunn in my lineups.
5. Damian Lillard is scoring 1.80 points per minute in the Portland scenario for Tuesday
The Blazers are still missing center Jusuf Nurkic and guard Anfernee Simons, leaving Lillard with the highest points per minute of any player on the slate. That’s right, he’s higher than Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic in their respective scenarios for Tuesday. Granted, that’s not a guarantee for Lillard to score the most fantasy points on the slate but the Warriors are playing at the fastest pace in the league. They are 27th against crafty finishers while Lillard is now averaging 32.3 points per game. That tends to rise when you score 71 in a game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Lillard scores another 40-plus here.
