Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s been a little while since we’ve had two slates on the same day, but that’s what is in front of us on Sunday. We’ve got three games in the afternoon and five on the main slate, so there are going to be a ton of options, and we should see plenty of high totals in the evening.
Between all of the games available, there is a ton of star power to choose from as well. Let’s talk about some of the players we want to target throughout the day.
1. The Nets are allowing the fifth-most points on putback shots (Early)
Normally, we’re not excited to play centers against the Nets since Nic Claxton is a strong defender and an active player on the glass. However, Clint Capela is under $6,000 on DraftKings and a strong value. He scores 1.15 points per minute on the season, and the Nets are allowing 7.5 points per game via putbacks. Capela not only scores 2.9 points per game (tied for the third-most) but he also is in the top 12 in rebound chances per game despite averaging just 26.8 minutes per game. He didn’t play even 21 minutes in the game on Friday, but the Hawks had jumped out to a massive lead, so I’m not overly concerned. Even in limited time and dealing with foul trouble, Capela still scored 23.5 DK points, and he’s too cheap on Sunday.
2. LeBron James just missed a triple-double on Friday despite playing under 27 minutes (Early)
The Lakers didn’t need much from LeBron James to blow out the Warriors, but they have to face the dynamic duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving on Sunday. There is a strong case to play Anthony Davis since the Mavericks are just 17th in points per game allowed in the paint, but James had eight assists and nine rebounds on Friday. Sure, he couldn’t hit a shot, so his DK score was pitiful, but James isn’t shooting 5-for-20 from the field very often. Dallas is down to 22nd in defensive rating, and James should be able to take full advantage of that fact, not to mention the Lakers are likely to be without guard D’Angelo Russell. The other additions the Lakers made fit LeBron’s skillset and his 35.7% assist rate, and the Mavericks are ill-equipped to defend either star Laker this afternoon.
3. The Kings allow the second-highest field goal rate from a 3-point distance (Main)
The matchup between the Kings and Thunder has the highest total of the entire day at over 240 points. Oklahoma City is also going to be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and that makes the whole team much different. I likely want at least two Thunder players, but one of the standouts is Isaiah Joe. His usage rate looks mediocre at just 19.7%, but he’s scoring 1.02 points per minute without Gilgeous-Alexander and shooting lights out from beyond the arc at 45.1% on the year. That has been while taking nearly five attempts per game despite averaging 16.1 points per minute, so he should be close to locked into 10 attempts or more. At $3,900 on DK, he’s a massive bargain, and I’d be stunned if he isn’t chalky.
4. Anthony Edwards scores 1.41 points per minute without D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns (Main)
This is a very strong matchup for Anthony Edwards, as both the Wolves and the Warriors are in the top five in pace, and the FTN Advanced DvP Tool is kind to him as well –
The salary is very strong on each site, and Edwards is playing around 40 minutes per game when it stays competitive. He has little competition for shots with D‘Angelo Russell in Los Angeles because Mike Conley isn’t going to shoot a ton, nor will Rudy Gobert and the other Wolves. Edwards is scoring 4.2 points per game in isolation and is going to continue to get more opportunities, while Golden State is allowing the eighth-most points per game in that play type. He’s among my favorite plays on the slate in the spend-up range.
5. Damian Lillard has a 40.6% usage rate without Jusuf Nurkic and Anfernee Simons (Main)
The salary is still extremely high for Damian Lillard, but the usage rate and 1.75 points per minute are across a sample size of 381 minutes. The Rockets are just a disaster defensively, sitting 29th in defensive rating, 29th against primary ball-handlers and 27th against scorers. After sitting out the last game (sometimes you have to rest after sitting on a plane for hours, I guess), Lillard should be well-rested on Sunday. If the Blazers have any hope to sneak into the play-in scenario, they have to win games like this, and Lillard is a threat to score 40-50 real points in this game. Combining Isaiah Joe with TyTy Washington from the Rockets should allow us to spend up on two players, so Edwards and Lillard are very much in the running for those spots.
