Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Friday night was a wild night of NBA action with multiple big blowouts, and it was capped off by the second-highest-scoring game in history. Saturday brings us five games that have a spread of five points or lower, and that’s including a heavyweight showdown between the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers in the East along with the Denver Nuggets playing the Memphis Grizzlies in the West. Let’s dig in and see who’s helping us in DFS Saturday.
1. The Hornets are allowing the sixth-most points per game to the roll man in the pick-and-roll
Charlotte is hosting the Heat Saturday, and that means they have to try and deal with Bam Adebayo, which is going to be a challenge. The salary is a touch high, but he’s scored at least 44.5 DK points in two of the three meetings so far this season and he’s also fourth in points per game as the roll man. Miami will still be without Kyle Lowry and that leaves Adebayo scoring 1.29 points per minute while the Hornets are also 29th in rebounds allowed per game. The salary demands a lot, but this is a great spot for Adebayo and the Heat need to start winning games. Since they got blown out Friday, Adebayo only played 25 minutes and should be ready to go Saturday. I would assume if Kevin Love starts again for the Heat, the field will flock to him and Adebayo could be a little sneaky.
2. Buddy Hield is scoring 5.6 points per game as a spot-up shooter, tied for the eighth most
The Pacers are facing the Magic, and Orlando has surrendered the ninth-most points per game to spot-up shooters. Hield is sitting at 0.98 points per minute and if we’re trying to capture his ceiling, we want matchups like this where the opposition can struggle in this aspect of the game. Orlando is just 15th against shooters and the 3-point matchup is interesting as well. The Magic get full credit for allowing the sixth-lowest field goal rate, they also allow the third-highest frequency. Hield is eighth in attempts per game (9.0) and his 42.5% conversion rate trails only Stephen Curry among the top 10 in attempts.
3. Nikola Jokic continues to average a triple-double
When we covered the Thursday night slate, the Memphis Grizzlies played the Philadelphia 76ers. I wrote something to the effect of the Memphis interior that couldn’t stop Joel Embiid and then he went for over 70.0 DK points despite shooting 7-25 from the field. Now Jokic gets that exact same matchup and Jokic scores more points per minute (1.77) and is far more efficient from the field (63.2%). Anytime he’s under $12,000, I’m very much in for playing Jokic and he’s arguably going to be my favorite spend-up on the slate. If we’re assuming Kevin Love is going to be chalky, I’m willing to eat that if I’m getting the ability to spend on Jokic in the game that has the second-highest total of the night.
4. Tyrese Maxey played 37 minutes Thursday night
It was a massive number of minutes for a player who has been coming off the bench for an extended period of time now –
If Maxey plays even 30-32 against the Celtics, he has a very strong chance of being a great value. Maxey shot just 6-18 from the field in that game but the Celtics are 16th against scorers and 24th against primary ball handlers. Since that Jan. 1 threshold, Maxey still has a 24.1% usage rate off the bench and is still the third-most dangerous scorer on this team. If you elect to spend up elsewhere, Maxey is a great way to still get a piece of the Eastern Conference battle.
5. Talen Horton-Tucker could be chalky once again
He’s still just $5,500 on DK and under $6,000 on FD, which is still extremely affordable. He’s not on the bench anymore but he’s still going to draw a fantastic matchup –
Since the trade deadline, Horton-Tucker has shot just 35.7% from the floor but has scored at least 31.25 DK points in four of the five games played. In the lone outlier, he only played 19 minutes and that’s just not likely an option this evening. The Jazz did sign Franck Jackson and Kris Dunn but only Dunn saw any action Thursday, while Horton-Tucker was over 30 minutes. With the Spurs dead last in defensive rating and seventh in pace, we can’t ask for much more.
