Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It seems to be a rarity anymore when we have an NBA DFS slate where most of the games have totals under 230 points, but that’s the case Tuesday night. Granted, there are only five games total, but at least every game is under nine points for the spread, so we should get a good night of NBA action. Hopefully, Tuesday doesn’t feature two blowouts in the late window like what happened Monday night.
1. Fred VanVleet is averaging 88.9 touches per game since the OG Anunoby injury
He’s become such a focal point to the Toronto offense since that point that he’s seventh in the league in touches per game. For some type of context, VanVleet is touching the ball more per game than Damian Lillard, Ja Morant and Trae Young in the same period. The Raptors could be missing Gary Trent Tuesday as well and if that happens, VanVleet is scoring 1.34 points per minute with a 32.6% assist rate. The Magic are only 14th against primary ball handlers according to the FTN Advanced DvP Tool, and the salary is reasonable for the role that VanVleet has right now.
2. Khris Middleton played 24 minutes in his last game
That is a great sign for Middleton, as he has slowly been working his way back from a knee issue. On the season, he’s averaging 1.31 points per minute but when he’s playing limited minutes, Middleton seems to be very aggressive with his shot to maximize his time on the court. He’s taken at least 14 field goal attempts in three of the past four games and two of those games have turned into over 34.5 DK points. The FD salary is fine, but the DK side of things still has him underpriced by a little bit and I’m not going to be surprised if he’s chalky.
3. Malik Monk is still out for the Sacramento Kings
When that happens, Terence Davis steps into a larger role, and even though the game Saturday went into overtime, Davis would have played about 25 minutes. He’s still just $4,500 on DK but he’s carrying a 22.2% usage rate and 1.10 points per minute. This game has the second-highest total of the night and the closest spread, which are appealing factors. I expect Davis to be fairly popular, and even without a start, he’s still going to play a role in this game and the salary makes plenty of sense.
4. The Warriors are tied for the ninth-most points per game allowed in isolation
Kawhi Leonard should benefit from that as he’s scoring 4.0 points per game, 16th in the league. Kawhi is also shooting 47.1% in isolation and that’s the ninth-highest mark, so he has some significant scoring upside in this spot. The Warriors played Monday night, and they already play at the fastest pace in the league, which is a huge jump for the Clippers at 24th. With Kawhi scoring 1.24 points per minute, the salary is still affordable for what he can do in this spot.
5. The Wizards are dead last against superstar players this year
There haven’t been many stars that are shining as brightly as Damian Lillard this season, and we may need to be prepared for him to be popular Tuesday night. Monday, he was around 30% rostered and crushed the Lakers with just under 60.0 DK points in just 33 minutes on the court. Lillard is just under 2.00 points per minute when the Blazers are missing all of the players they are, although Jerami Grant is questionable. Washington is 19th in defensive rating and the salary is not scaring the field away at all for Lillard, so he’s likely to be popular again and it’s not hard to see why.
